Assessment On Risk Management Of Cost In Petrochemical Construction Projects

The petrochemical construction project is a large-scale construction project with large scale,high investment,long construction period and complicated process,and is an important part of the national economy.The ultimate goal of the project includes physical engineering objectives,cost targets,social benefit objectives,etc.Among them,the construction cost target throughout the project implementation and construction phase is always the guiding goal of the petrochemical construction project in the construction process.It is about the completion of the engineering entity,the performance of the project,the efficiency of the enterprise,and the development of the national economy.Therefore,effective management and control of construction cost targets of petrochemical construction projects(ie,construction cost control)is one of the most urgent management methods.However,in view of the large-scale petrochemical construction project,long construction period,complicated process and other project construction characteristics,its construction cost is extremely unpredictable,dynamic and ambiguous.It is very unlikely that scientific and comprehensive cost management is possible in an instant.This led to the collapse of the project.Therefore,scientific and rational cost management,estimate the construction cost risk,make correct decisions in time,improve the fund disposal plan,and adopt effective countermeasures to improve the construction cost of petrochemical construction projects.Risk is of great significance and is extremely important for project construction.Referring to the relevant research situation at home and abroad and the current situation of cost expenditure in the construction stage of petrochemical construction projects,this paper systematically analyzed the status,form,function and significance of construction cost of petrochemical construction projects from the point of construction cost.On this basis,combined with the relevant theoretical research of risk management,the risk indicators affecting the construction cost of petrochemical construction projects are discussed in depth.According to the principles of scientificity,comprehensiveness,systematicness and rationality,the evaluation index system of construction cost risk assessment of petrochemical construction project is constructed.According to the current situation of risk theory research at home and abroad,the advantages and disadvantages of common weight determination methods are analyzed and summarized.In view of the limitations of common methods in risk assessment ofconstruction cost of petrochemical construction projects,an ANP structure model is proposed.The ANP structure model of construction cost risk of petrochemical construction project is constructed based on the risk occurrence probability,risk loss and risk uncontrollability.The ANP structure model is used to determine the complex interaction and interaction among risk elements.The weight of risk index is obtained by semi-quantitative and semi-qualitative calculation method,and Super Deci is applied.The structure model is solved automatically by sion software.Because of the problems of common risk assessment methods,such as the lack of basis for grading standards,the lack of objectivity in determining index weights and the low reliability of evaluation results,this paper proposes a risk assessment model for construction cost of petrochemical construction projects based on extended TOPSIS method.The weighted normative decision matrix is obtained by aggregating the fuzzy weights obtained by ANP,the positive and negative ideal solutions are obtained by TOPSIS method,and the construction cost risk is determined by grey correlation degree.Taking the sulfur recovery project of PetroChina Second Construction Company as an example,combining with the unique characteristics of petrochemical project,this paper combs the formation path of the project construction cost risk,carries on the modeling and evaluation analysis of its construction cost risk,and compares the analysis results with the actual situation of the project.From the comparison results,we can see that the evaluation model is scientific and feasible.