Study On Typhoon Disaster Pre-assessment Of 10kV Distribution Line Based On Cloud Matter Element

Typhoon disaster can easily cause mass damage to the line.Typhoon disaster will cause incalculable economic losses because of large-scale power outages.In order to improve the ability of power grid to prevent typhoon,scientists have done some significant researches about transmission line.The safety and reliability of 10kV distribution line is related with the majority of electricity users.However,the research about the 10kV distribution line that caused large damages still needs to be deepened.Accurate disaster pre-assessment is the useful opportunity to prevent disaster.Disaster pre-evaluation is to solve the contradiction between frequent natural disasters and reducing influence of natural disasters to human.There is a contradiction between the complexity of disaster pre-assessment and disaster classification.There are two advantages of cloud matter element.Mater-element can analysis the problem of conflict qualitatively and quantitatively.The cloud model can solve random and fuzzy problems.According to these two advantages,this paper analyzes the internal law of distribution line damage in typhoon disaster.This paper puts forward an evaluation method of the 10kV distribution line typhoon disaster base on cloud matter element in order to improve the ability that prevents and reduces disaster.Main contributions of this thesis are listed as following:(1)Selecting evaluation methods.This paper comprehensive summarizes theory researches about the impact of typhoon disaster to the power grid and comprehensive analyzes multi index evaluation method of the typhoon disaster pre-assessment.Based on the characteristics of the 10kV distribution line typhoon disaster,the advantages and disadvantages of the current research were discussed.Then combined with the matter-element model and cloud model,a more applicable pre-assessment method in 10kV distribution line of typhoon disaster is proposed.and the superiority of the method is verified by an example.(2)Making the object of evaluation clear.Distribution line typhoon disaster loss is complex and diverse.Three kinds of typical typhoon damage that influence the 10kV distribution line are verified based on the physical properties of 10kV distribution line and the structural characteristics of typhoon.Establishing the typical damage theory analysis model and studying the actual disaster-prone position can extract key factors of typical disaster loss and typhoon disaster damage characteristics of 10kV distribution line.Clear object of evaluation makes a theoretical foundation for the establishment of the following model.(3)Establishing index system.In order to effectively reflect the differences in different regions of 10kV distribution line in typhoon disaster,the theory of ecology spatial heterogeneity is used.The spatial heterogeneity of the 10kV distribution line in typhoon disaster is revealed by regional natural disaster system theory.Selecting research space that meets relatively homogeneous and the technical conditions to achieve a reasonable division of the study area.Comprehensive results that have been researched is index selection,classification and weight determination.Pre-built disaster evaluation index system can reflect the typical disaster mechanism.(4)Realizing the pre-assessment of disaster situation.In order to determine the loss severity of lOkV distribution line,the total time quota of repair that the renews lOkV distribution line power supply function in the area is proposed as basis of disaster grade division and the weight of the relative importance of different typical damage severity.Dividing assessment area accords to the selected scale,then establishing the pre-typhoon disaster evaluation model of lOkV distribution line based on cloud matter element to achieve the disaster level in each unit.Finally,the effectiveness of model will be proved through the historical statistics.