Study On Risk Assessment Of Water Damage Disaster In G342 Baoji Section

In recent years,extreme weather events have occurred frequently in China,and the impact of road infrastructure damage has gradually increased,causing a great threat to the lives and properties of the country and the people.There are many factors associated with rainfall-type water damage,and it is more difficult to predict the risk of disaster damage.Slope water damage events have uncertainty,and due to the complex and variable water damage conditions,water damage accidents are easy to occur.Therefore,it is important to carry out slope water damage hazard evaluation research and determine the impact path of water damage disaster damage events to ensure the safety and reliability of road operation.In this paper,based on the water damage repair project of the slope of section G342 in Baoji,PCA-BP model,ABAQUS software,Python language and Monte-Carlo method are used comprehensively to carry out the evaluation of slope hazards under different rainfall conditions,mainly including the following four aspects:（1）Clarify the categories of potential hazards and construct an evaluation system.Aiming at the hidden danger qualities of rainfall-type slope water damage events,the environmental factors of the study area were analyzed from 6 aspects,and the disaster-causing factors of disaster damage were divided into 5 major categories and 15 sub-categories.The analysis results show that slope water damage accounts for the highest percentage,followed by roadbed pavement water damage,bridge structure water damage and protection and reinforcement engineering damage occurred the least number of times,and the main type of slope destabilization damage disaster causing G342 is slope water damage.The literature summary method is used,and the results of field survey are combined to select the water damage risk factors,complete the digital processing of disaster-causing factors,and construct the evaluation system applicable to the water damage risk of G342 slope.（2）Judgment of slope hazard status.The adaptive sample data set is constructed,and a comprehensive evaluation model applicable to the prediction of water damage hazard status of G342 slope is proposed.The prediction method combining PCA and BP neural network is proposed for judging the slope hazard status,and the given data are run into the combined model to judge the slope hazard status.The results show that the predicted slope state is consistent with the real state,which can provide a reliable basis for the later hazard evaluation of slope water damage disaster.（3）Exploration of slope force deformation and safety factor.With the help of Python programming language and ABAQUS software,G342 slope simulation model is established for different rainfall calendars of rainfall type water damage to show the detailed design process of the model,evaluate the probability of slope failure and the distribution characteristics of the most dangerous sliding surface under different rainfall calendars in real time,and obtain the corresponding safety coefficient value at any moment in the whole rainfall course.The internal force and deformation instability of the slope at 24 h,48h,60 h and 72 h are explored.The simulation results of slope mechanics show that under continuous rainfall,the longer the rainfall time,the larger the displacement,the larger the equivalent force value,the faster the plastic zone area grows,the faster the slope safety coefficient value decreases,and the greater the possibility of landslide.（4）Water damage disaster warning and forecasting model construction.For rainfall-type water damage with different rainfall ephemeris and rainfall intensity,on the basis of Python programming language and ABAQUS software,dynamically combine Monte-Carlo method to solve water damage probability,construct double prevention mechanism with the help of simulation model and hazard probability evaluation table,establish G342 Baoji section rainfall-type water damage disaster warning forecast grading standard,give the water damage destabilization probability interval and the corresponding The model effect was tested by back generation of historical rainfall data.The results show that the early warning and forecasting results are consistent with the actual slope hazard results.It can realize the goal of visualizing the abstract slope water damage problem,inform the slope hazard status in advance,and provide the basis for effective safety prevention of slope works under rainfall conditions.Through the above research,a scientific and effective prevention mechanism is established for G342 slope water damage,providing an effective safety prevention basis for water damage prevention and reinforcement design,and providing conditions for the development of water damage event research from qualitative theoretical analysis to an operable technical level.