Earthquake Prediction Of Masonry Structure In Urban Villages

At present,there are still a large number of masonry buildings in potential disaster prevention area such as villages and towns and rural-urban fringe zones.Due to masonry structures use brittle materials with low shear strength,the seismic capacity of masonry structures is worse than that of other structures,and the failure rate of masonry structures is quite high in previous earthquakes.Therefore,masonry buildings have become the focus of earthquake identification and earthquake damage prediction in China.A detailed structural analysis and screening of these houses would require a large number of professionals and would be virtually impossible to achieve in a short period of time,the key to solve these problems is the rapid identification and earthquake risk prediction of large area group buildings.The purpose and significance of this paper is to develop a simple,reliable and fast model for seismic capacity evaluation and risk estimation of masonry structures on the basis of the theory of seismic conceptual design,seismic identification criterion and risk probability prediction,etc.,after a full investigation of the masonry houses in Hongjiaying.The model mainly includes two aspects: On the one hand,it is the rapid appraisal of the seismic capacity of masonry structures.On the other hand,the construction of earthquake-fighting masonry structures is screened for buildings that do not meet the seismic capability.The specific research content and results include the following points:Summarize the research status of masonry structure appraisal and risk estimation work,analyze the advantages and disadvantages of various evaluation methods,and point out the methods and directions of this paper.Conduct a thorough investigation of the typical village in the city of Kunming--Hongjiaying,research and analyze the unfavorable earthquake-resistance factors of masonry structures in the region,establish the database of seismic capacity appraisal and earthquake damage prediction model of Hongjiaying masonry structure accordingto the investigation results.According to the concept of seismic design and the theory of shear strength of masonry structure,and combined with the analysis of the present situation of Hongjiaying masonry building,select seven factors of height,aspect ratio,body type,mortar strength,ring beam,structural column and wall area as the influencing factors of the seismic performance of masonry structure in this paper.Based on the investigation and data base,combined with the relevant codes for seismic identification of masonry structures,establish the Anylogic model for the evaluation of the earthquake resistance of masonry structures,and identify the masonry structure within the Hongjiaying for seismic resistance.Prepare ID3 Decision Tree Prediction Model and PCA-ELM Prediction Program,input historical earthquake damage data into the system to generate the decision tree and select the principal component factor,use the test data to calculate the prediction accuracy of the two sets of prediction models,select the model with higher precision and perform seismic damage prediction on the masonry structure in Hongjiaying.Typical masonry structure,and established the calculation model on the basis of the equivalent frame method of OpenSees,hong family camp typical house of four structural vulnerability analysis,get every building in different damage performance points of probability,and translated into the corresponding matrix and vulnerability index of vulnerability,finally with PCA-ELM method to forecast the result of the compare,verify the PCA-ELM conform to the degree of the algorithm.