Research On Risk Analysis And Decision-Making Method Of Nuclear Power Plant Operations System

At present,nuclear power is recognized as a clean,safe and reliable energy source,which plays an important role in optimizing the energy structure,promoting the ecological environment,and improving energy conservation and emission reduction.The total amount of energy in our country is insufficient and the shortage of energy demand is large.As the secondary energy source,nuclear power will be an important support to the development of national economy for a long time.And the premise of developing nuclear power is to reduce or eliminate safety risk.Risk control is an important guarantee to ensure the sustainable development of nuclear power.The thesis establishes a risk assessment model based on the unit overall risk value and subsystem risk value.A quantitative calculation method is proposed to convert the probability and consequence of each subsystem risk into the total risk value of the whole unit,by which the overall risk value of the whole unit can be evaluated.The thesis establishes a risk evaluation index to achieve the rapid grading of different risks,and provides a basis for horizontal comparison for the subsequent selection of control measure.At the same time,the importance of each subsystem risk in the overall unit risk is ranked by `AHP,and compared with the risk assessment index,the validity of the model is verified.In order to calculate the input-output ratio of risk control,this paper puts forward the concept of risk benefit coefficient,establishes the corresponding analysis model,and compares the cost input of risk control measures with the benefit of eliminating risk.On the basis of the above model,the risk assessment and control strategy is formulated based on the following five main links: risk identification,risk management plan,risk analysis and classification,risk response scheme,and risk monitoring and control.The safety risk management system suitable for the operation of nuclear power station is established.At last,the operational risk of the `DYW nuclear power plant is evaluated by using the evaluation model established in this thesis.The results show that the risk assessment method provides an efficient analysis tool for improving the risk management ability of nuclear power enterprises.Through the comparison between the loss after the risk and the risk pre-control investment,it is further clarified that the risk control has good comprehensive benefits.Meanwhile,the nuclear power safety risk management system established in this thesis can provide an effective reference for similar enterprises at home and abroad to carry out safety control.