Research On The Activation Of Chinese Baroque Historic District In Harbin Based On Scenario Planning Method

Historic district is a valuable asset in urban development.It is an important part of the city’s vitality today.Most historical blocks in the city have been declining and need activating.However,the rapid development of society has led to changes in the factors that have stabilized in the city,or the sudden emergence of new factors affecting urban development.Traditional urban planning can not achieve effective regulation of urban development because of environmental conditions or the lack of unexpected predictions.The uncertainty of future development makes the activation of historical blocks face challenges.At the same time the activation of historical blocks is no longer stay in space,but to penetrate into the economy,culture and other aspects.The mainstay of the activation of the historical district is also changed from a single government to a multigroup stakeholder.Scenario planning is a new decision-making method for planners to cope with the rapid changes in urban environmental conditions.It requires planners to devise a different scenario and a corresponding planning strategy by harnessing the possible changes in the important driving forces of the system under different conditions,combining different stakeholders’ different needs and assumptions for the future.In this paper,the scenario planning is applied to the activation of the Chinese Baroque Historic District in Harbin.It provides a new way for the activation of the historical district in Harbin.This paper first analyzes the driving force of decisionmaking focus,and determines that the developers’ own economic capacity,the mode of relocation of shops,the area and the surrounding people are educated.Level and cultural level,and through the two-dimensional quadrant analysis method to carry out the key uncertainty driving force that is the screening of the scenario variables to determine the retail return model,the surrounding traffic conditions and consumer consumption values for the three And then the evaluation of the proposed scenario.Finally put forward the scenario of decision-making and put forward the activation strategy of the Chinese Baroque historic district from the aspects of short-term,medium-term and long-term so as to provide theoretical and practical guidance for the activation of the Chinese Baroque historic district in the future.