Research And Application Of Project Risk Management Based On Neural Network

Recently,fierce competition between projects and various rapidly growning risks make enterprises facing more and more unprecedented challenges.However,due to the lack of effective risk management and control measures,the failure rate of many well-designed projects increased gradually.This phenomenon has attracted the public's attention on project risk management.Therefore,the study of project risk management is very meaningful.This thesis mainly analyzes the classic risk management architecture,risk identification method and risk analysis method through the knowledge of risk management theory,and then proposes the following improvements:Based on the research of classical project risk identification and risk analysis methods,a new risk identification method is proposed which combining the brainstorming method,the SWOT technology and the analytic hierarchy process to solves the problems that SWOT technology can not fully consider the risk in each stage and cannot process the risk with weight.Based on the problem of slow convergence speed of neural networks,a N-Logistic function is proposed by adding a displacement factor for classical Sigmond activation function,which greatly improve the convergence speed of BP neural network.In order to solve the problem that the number of hidden nodes can not be determined accurately in three-layer neural network,an optimization algorithm solving the number of nodes in the hidden layer using the Fibonacci method is proposed,which solved the project failure problem due to the estimation bias.The project risk management system designed and implemented based on risk management theory.The system identifies project risks based on the optimized risk identification method and uses the identified results as input for the project risk analysis by a three-layer neural network.Finally,the risk level and response measures are displayed on the system page to reduce the project risk and increase the success rate of the project.This system make the project risk management more accurate,standardized,scientific and convenient.