Reliability Evaluation Of Traffic System In The Central Area Of Large Cities

As characteristic socialism enters a new era,the process of urbanization in our country continues to accelerate;the number of large cities continues to increase,and the contradiction between traffic supply and demand in the central area becomes prominent.The road traffic congestion becomes more serious,which affect the normal progress of various life and production activities in the region.The transportation system in the center of a large city is the lifeblood for the development of the entire city and it's also the core of ensuring the normal operation of the city.A stable,efficient,and reliable transportation system is not only the basis for travelers to achieve their purpose of travel,but also the ultimate goal of urban traffic managers and builders.With the extremely limited resources for development of the transportation system in the central area,the study of the reliability of the transportation system in the central area of large cities can maximize the use of existing resources,fully exploit the internal potential of the current transportation system,and improve the level of urban traffic management,which has great theoretical significance and practical value.At present,China has not established a comprehensive set of evaluation standards for the reliability of traffic systems in major urban centers.The evaluation indicators also need to be improved.This article summarizes and analyzes the actual traffic conditions in major cities in China in recent years,and conducts in-depth analysis of the traffic system in the central area of major cities.Through the SD model,it finds out the main influencing factors of the reliability of the central area's traffic system.According to the connectivity reliability to smoothness reliability,and the three perspectives of travel time reliability,the ISM model was used to build the reliability evaluation index system for traffic systems in the central area of large cities,and a game model-BP neural network model was used to solve and evaluate the reliability of the traffic system in the central area of large cities.Based on the sample data of the reliability evaluation indicators for the traffic system of Chongqing downtown area in 2013 and 2014,the BP network model was trained.Based on the feasibility of the model verification,the model was used in the central area of Chongqing in 2015 and 2016.The reliability of the transportation system was evaluated,and the reliability level of the traffic system in Chongqing downtown area showed a declining trend overall from 2013 to 2016.On the basis of the authenticity of the reliability evaluation results,the reliability of the road network connectivity was improved.Smooth operation reliability,guarantee system travel time reliability Some suggestions on the improvement of the reliability of the traffic system in the downtown area of Chongqing were proposed.The inadequacies in the study of this paper are as follows: 1)The evaluation of the reliability of the road traffic system in the central area of the metropolitan area was conducted only,and the reliability of the external traffic system between the central area and the urban expansion area or the new area was not taken into consideration;2)In terms of the selection of evaluation indicators,only the reliability indicators for measuring the day-to-day operation of the transportation system in the central area are considered,failing to reflect the reliability of the regional transportation system in the face of natural disasters and major special events.The evaluation of the overall reliability of the traffic system in the central area of large cities is the basis for alleviating regional traffic problems.In the future research,the issues that need to be further explored are: 1)It is necessary not only to evaluate the reliability of the transportation system in the past and present central area,but also to understand the policy guidelines in the process of urban development and to make a reasonable prediction of the future reliability of the transportation system in light of the actual conditions in the city;2)In terms of obtaining information on the traffic system of the central area of the city,it is also necessary to draw lessons from and analyze the relevant theories and practical foundations for the improvement of the reliability of the traffic system of the central area in large cities abroad to provide a more in-depth and meaningful proposal for improving the reliability of the transportation system in the central area of large cities.