The Design And Implementation Of The Electric Vehicle Frontier Technology Evaluation System Based On Delphi Method

Nowadays,energy and environmental degradation are global issue.Therefore,the traditional automobile industry faces great challenges.Accordingly,Electric vehicles have arisen.Many countries have invested in electric vehicles area.In recent years,the global electric vehicle market has been growing rapidly.The United States、Germany and Japan are currently taking lead in this field.They all have entered mass production stage[1].Compared with traditional fuel vehicles,electric vehicles is a revolutionary technology in the automotive industry.In pure electric market,Tesla has grown as star.Many major global players have joined the field of the development and manufacturing of electric vehicle.Currently,the electric car industry is developing rapidly in China.It is great time for electric vehicle manufacturers.Both traditional vehicle and newly-established manufacturers have paid great attention on electric vehicles.For traditional non-electric automobile sector,compared with Europe and United States,auto-industry of China has difficult to gain advantage.As a new industry field,electric vehicles is the key area where China could take a lead role[2].If we can predict the technology trend accurately,we would have a clear road map.With the development of the automobile industry,the planning of the automobile industry is particularly important,for both the relevant state departments and car enterprises.Therefore,the technology foresight of the automobile industry is very important.Technology foresight is a strategically study.It would provide decision-making support to technology development.The precise foresight would make technological progress and improve industry development.In this project,we are aiming to acquire accurate technology foresight for electric vehicle industry.This project will evaluate the frontier technologies of electric vehicles based on the Delphi method,and conduct a survey of technical experts in the field of electric vehicles to give full play to the role of experts in the automotive related fields.Focusing on the implementation of the "12th Five-Year Plan" for the development of electric vehicle science and technology,and the field of electric vehicles and the technical decision of national science and technology program management process needs,the key technologies of electric vehicles will be pre-judged through the pooling of expert wisdom to depict electric cars around 2049.The technological development situation promotes the healthy and orderly development of China’s electric vehicle industry by promoting the development of electric vehicle technology.This dissertation discusses the design and implementation of an expert evaluation system based on Delphi’s investigation of ASP.net technology and SQL Server database.The main functions of the system include user login,questionnaire generation,questionnaire evaluation and feedback of evaluation results.In the design and implementation process,the system development uses Microsoft Visual Studio 2012 as the development tool,ASP.net as the three-layer architecture,and the development language is ASP.Net(C#)3.0 The system debugging environment is based on Microsoft.Net FrameWork 4.0 version,and uses Microsoft Team Foundation Server 2010 for unified code version management.Delphi method was used to conduct at least two rounds of Delphi expert survey questionnaires for each technical forecast to ensure the adequacy and reliability of expert opinions.Through the collect on induction,sorting,and feedback,the opinions of all experts were used to obtain the forecast value and put forward forecast report or evaluation opinion fianlly.At present,the development of the project has been completed.Through the preliminary test of the system,all the functions can be realized and the system runs stably.The evaluation system depicts the future development of electric vehicles and future electric vehicle product forms,provides scientific forecasts for the development of electric vehicles industry,and depicts that how our country’s electric car science and technology will support and lead the development of society and how to change our production and life around 2049.