Research On Product Technology Foresight Method Based On Scenario Analysis

In today’s world,the development of science and technology is changing with each passing day.The future of mankind and the prosperity of the country depends more than ever on the ability and efficiency of scientific and technological innovation and the use of knowledge.Technology foresight,as an important means of formulating a national future strategy,plays an irreplaceable role in enhancing scientific and technological innovation and the use of knowledge.For enterprises,product technology foresight is an important way to ensure that products remain competitive in the future market and lead the development of future products.As a technology system,any product implements its functions in a specific scenario.The basic task of technology foresight is to discover the scenarios in which future products will play a role,and to foresight the functions and technologies of future products through scenario analysis.The essence of product technology foresight is to put the product into the future scenario,and through the analysis of the interaction between the elements of the scenario,discover the possibility of implementing technology.Starting from the nature and task of technology foresight,research on future scenario construction methods guided by environmental profile transformation and technological system evolution.Through scenario element analysis and resource analysis,foresight future product technologies.The main work of the paper is as follows:(1)Investigate the product technology foresight method of environmental profile transformation to guide scenario analysis.The environmental elements of the product are effectively identified through the environmental profile.After integrating the environmental elements in multiple environments,the product’s design status and goals are presented in a scenario-recurring manner.Discover and utilize effective resources through resource analysis to obtain reasonable technical solutions for future products.(2)Research on product technology foresight methods of technology system evolution-led scenario analysis.Perform a functional analysis of the current product to find problems in the current technology system,use the found defects as an entry point,build heuristic problem scenarios,and combine virtual system evolution laws to construct virtual use scenarios.The mapping of product technology from the present to the future was established,and the related technologies obtained were evaluated using resource analysis methods.(3)The product technology foresight process is established based on scenario analysis.As an example,the technology foresight of powder filling equipment was conducted to effectively guide the technology development of powder filling equipment.