Research On The Influence Of China's Passenger Car Structure Change On Carbon Emission Under The "Double Credits" Policy

With the aggravation of environmental problems and energy crisis,it has become the consensus of the world to take positive measures to reduce energy use and carbon emissions.As the "big user" of energy consumption and carbon emissions,the automobile industry has taken measures to reduce the energy consumption and carbon emissions.Not only have various measures and time schedules of "no combustion"been put forward,but also new energy vehicles have been vigorously developed.China is also step up the layout of new energy vehicles,introduce various policies to promote the optimization and upgrad of the automobile industrial structure.As an alternative policy of preferential fiscal and tax revenue,the five departments jointly issued the measures for the parallel management of the average fuel consumption of passenger car enterprises and new energy vehicle credits(hereinafter referred to as the"double credits" policy).The "double credits" policy has a significant impact on forstructure of China's passenger cars.The car companies not only need to achieve the fuel consumption points,but also the proportion of new energy vehicles points,which forces the car companies to speed up the transformation to the new energy vehicle market.However,with the development of new energy vehicles,due to the coal based power generation mode and the fossil energy based industrial system in China,whether the new energy vehicles really save energy and reduce emissions is questionable:Although the new energy passenger vehicles can basically achieve zero emissions in the driving stage,the battery manufacturing stage of new energy passenger vehicles,compared with the engines of traditional energy passenger vehicles,has more energy consumption and emissions.Therefore,from the perspective of life cycle,it is necessary to study whether the new energy passenger vehicles are really more energy-saving than the traditional energy passenger vehiclesThis study interprets the“double credits" policy,analyzes the calculation principle of double credits,constructs the profit function of passenger car enterprises according to the market environment of passenger car enterprises and the influence of double credits on the decision-making of passenger vehicle enterprises,and studies how the passenger car enterprises carry out the production of traditional energy passenger car and new energy passenger car under the regulation of double credits to meet the needs of the market environment of passenger car enterprises The profit of the enterprise is the best.The equilibrium result of the model shows that,under the restriction of the“double credits" policy,if the passenger car enterprises want to obtain the maximum profit,the new energy passenger car must reach a certain output,and the proportion of the new energy passenger car output in the total output of passenger cars has an internal power,thus revealing the micro basis of the role of the"double credits" policyIn order to test the impact of the"double credits" policy on the market structure of China's passenger vehicles,this paper build a DID model,and empirically analyzes the impact of the "double credits" policy on the sales volume of China's new energy passenger car,as well as the impact of the "double credits" policy on the structural change of China's passenger cars.The results show that the "double credits" policy not only has a significant positive impact on the sales of new energy passenger cars,but also can significantly improve the proportion of new energy passenger car sales in the sales of passenger cars.Under the influence of "double credits" policy,the structure of passenger cars in China has changed significantlyIn order to comprehensively and accurately evaluate the impact of structural changes of passenger cars on carbon emissions,from the perspective of life cycle,uses the GREET model to calculate the carbon emissions generated by new energy passenger cars and traditional energy passenger cars from three stages of fuel stage,manufacturing stage and driving stage,and makes a comparative analysis of the carbon emissions of the two in each stage.The results show that,for a passenger car,the energy consumption and emissions of new energy passenger cars in the manufacturing stage are greater than traditional energy passenger cars,and the energy consumption and emissions in the driving stage are far lower than traditional energy passenger cars.With the use of cars after driving 56361.67807km,the carbon emission of traditional energy passenger vehicles will be greater than new energy passenger cars.The calculation of the total carbon emission per 10000 passenger cars also shows that with the increase of the proportion of new energy passenger cars in passenger cars,the total carbon emission per 10000 passenger cars is decreasing year by year.Under the influence of the "double credits" policy,the analysis of this paper shows that the passenger car enterprises have the internal power to transform to new energy passenger cars,and the proportion of new energy passenger cars in the total passenger cars will continue to increase with the continuous implementation of the"double credits" policy.Reducing carbon emissions during the manufacturing stage of new energy vehicles,prolonging the service life of new energy cars,and encouraging the use of new energy cars can further play the role of "double credits" policy in energy conservation and emission reduction.