Real-time Traffic Flow Risk Assessment Model In Gulei Port Waters

With the development of international transportation and more and more developed maritime transport,the Gulei port area began to plan and upgrade,increasing the number of Gulei port terminals,the number of vessels in and out of the Gulei port area increased,the types of vessels increased,the ships became larger and larger,and the navigation safety of ships also increased.In order to reduce the risk of ship collision and ensure the safety of ship transportation in Gulei port.Real-time risk assessment was conducted for vessel traffic flow in Gulei port.This paper firstly analyzes the navigation environment of Gulei port and the navigation risk of ships.Then,according to the navigation environment of Gulei port and the characteristics of real-time ship assessment,the risk index system of ship navigation is established.Then,the weight of each index was determined by means of expert investigation and literature research.Based on AIS and VTS,ships in port traffic flow can obtain the real-time values of each index.Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the ship real-time traffic flow risk assessment model is used to evaluate the ship real-time traffic flow risk in Gulei port.Finally,the risk assessment results of vessel traffic flow in Gulei port are analyzed.The research results of this paper mainly include the following aspects:1)based on the analysis of the navigation environment and risks of vessels in Gulei port,combining with the characteristics of real-time assessment,the expert investigation method and literature research method are adopted to construct the real-time risk index system of Gulei port.2)The expert scoring method and cloud model are used to determine the weight of each risk index.Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,a single ship risk assessment model is constructed first,and a real-time traffic flow risk assessment model is constructed on the basis of a single ship risk assessment model.3)the ship real-time traffic flow risk assessment model is used to assess the risk of real-time traffic flow in Gulei port.Firstly,the risk assessment is carried out for the overall traffic flow in Gulei port with the change of time,and then the risk assessment is carried out for the ships in the Gulei port in the total time period.At last,the risk of changing ship speed of single ship in real time traffic flow in Gulei port is evaluated.4)by analyzing the results of real-time traffic flow risk assessment in Gulei port,it can not only dynamically assess the change of vessel traffic flow in Gulei port with time,but also dynamically assess the risk level of each vessel.