| Since the reform and opening up,China’s economic development has made remarkable progress,but at the same time,it has to face the more serious air pollution problems caused by the large consumption of fossil energy.At present,China has become one of the world’s largest energy consumers and carbon dioxide emitters.Large energy consumption and environmental pollution have become the biggest obstacles to economic development.In recent years,the government has been actively participating in the international carbon emission reduction governance.At the Copenhagen Climate Conference in 2009,it promised that the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 will be reduced by 40% compared to 2005.Under the framework of the Paris Agreement in 2015,the Chinese government made another commitment to reduce the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions by 60%-65% in2030 compared to 2005,and reached a peak around 2030,and strived to reach the peak as soon as possible.In this context,this paper uses statistical data to perform a descriptive statistical analysis of China’s technological innovation level and the status of carbon dioxide emissions.Using the LMDI decomposition model,it attempts to explore the causes of changes in carbon dioxide emissions.Finally,a carbon emission system including energy,population,carbon dioxide emissions,and economic and social development systems was constructed,and eight scenarios of two major categories were set up,focusing on the effects of technological innovation on carbonemission reduction.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)From the current status of technological innovation,China’s R & D investment,R & D personnel’s full equivalent and patent grants have increased rapidly,and technological innovation capabilities have greatly improved,but at the same time there are problems such as insufficient attention to the intensity of R & D investment and insufficient independent innovation capabilities.From the current situation of carbon dioxide emissions,China ’s energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions intensity have both declined significantly from 2005 to 2016,but the total energy consumption and total carbon dioxide emissions are still very high,and the pressure for carbon emission reduction is still very high.(2)Use the LMDI decomposition model to decompose the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions into energy structure effects,technical effects,economic effects,and population size effects.The research found that energy structure factors and technical factors have a negative driving effect on carbon dioxide emissions,economic factors and population size.Factors have a positive role in promoting carbon dioxide emissions;economic development is the leading factor in rising carbon dioxide emissions,with a cumulative contribution rate of 223.86%,and technical effects are the fundamental driving force for carbon emission reduction,with a cumulative contribution rate of-117.94%;(3)Technological innovation is the fundamental driving force for carbon emission reduction.Under the technological innovation scenario,the simulation found that under the four scenarios in 2030,the high scenario and the higher scenario exceeded the target of “60 to 65% reduction in carbon dioxide emission intensity in2030 compared to 2005”,and the baseline scenario emission reduction rate reached62.02%.Within the acceptable target range,the emission reduction rate in the low scenario is 59.56%,which is close to China’s currently committed emission reduction target.(4)Under the comprehensive scenario setting,through the adjustment of technological innovation,government control and industrial structure and other factors,it was found that the average reductions in total fossil energy consumption were 4.258%,0.360% and 5.814%,respectively.Significant reductions were 4.312%,0.360%,and 4.165%,respectively.In order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and achieve low-carbon economic development and transformation,we should adhere to technological innovation as the lead,guide and encourage scientific and technological innovation,improve the allocation system of scientific research resources,optimize the efficiency of resource allocation,increase the protection of intellectual property rights,and expand financing channels for scientific and technological research and development.Establish a government-market linkage governance mechanism,strengthen government supervision responsibilities,revitalize the carbon trading market,optimize the energy structure,adjust the industrial structure,focus on the quality of economic development,and achieve coordinated economic-environment development. |
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