Mechanism Analysis And Policy Simulation Of Coordinated Emission Reduction Of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Road Traffic

Under the background of pushing forward the coordinated development strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei（BTH）region,green development is one of the important goals of realizing sustainable development in the BTH region.However,traffic carbon emission has become a bottleneck that restricts the development of the BTH region.How to implement the traffic emission reduction policy as a whole to maximize the benefits of coordinated traffic emission reduction in the BTH region,which is of great significance for easing the pressure of ecological and environmental protection in the BTH region and realizing the regional sustainable development.This paper studies the synergetic emission reduction potential of BTH region from two parts:the internal mechanism of synergetic emission reduction and the simulation of emission reduction policy.This paper provides theoretical basis for coordinated emission reduction in BTH region through internal mechanism analysis and policy reference for implementing coordinated emission reduction in BTH region through emission reduction policy simulation.Firstly,based on the feedback mechanism between traffic energy consumption and its influencing factors,the paper constructs a complex network of refined oil consumption in BTH road traffic based on the co-integration theory,and explains the internal mechanism of coordinated emission reduction in BTH traffic through the characteristics of the network model.Secondly,the paper based on complex network model of the carbon road traffic system dynamics model of the BTH region,to coordinate the implementation of the electric car policy and BTH vehicle simulates and analyses the effect of the improvement of energy efficiency policies to reduce emissions,and examines the extra low carbon power structure influence on the electric car policy,aimed at the BTH traffic collaborative reduction policy to provide the reference.This paper draws the following conclusions through empirical research:due to the cross-regional conductivity of variable fluctuations within the system,the carbon emission of road traffic in BTH region is not an isolated problem within the three regions,so the key variables should be grasped to realize the coordinated reduction of regional traffic emission.Through policy simulation,if the BTH government implements the electric vehicle policy in coordination,the BTH region can achieve the traffic emission reduction of 928.2 to 52,248,800 tons of CO₂ equivalent in 2030 under different policy implementation efforts,and produce the emission reduction effect of 6.6%to 37.7%.The low-carbon power generation structure can increase the emission reduction potential of electric vehicle policy to 52.12%.On the basis of the electric vehicle policy,the improvement of energy consumption technology progress level of electric vehicles can achieve the traffic emission reduction of 4967.15～558.73 million tons of CO₂equivalent,which is an additional 15.9%～30.4%emission reduction effect compared with the simple expansion of the scale of electric vehicles.But the car fuel energy technology progress will weaken the electric car emissions reduction potential,the vehicle emission reduction effect of the improvement of energy efficiency policy is uncertain,the emission reduction potential depends on the fuel cars and electric energy consumption of the technological progress speed.Only when the region achieves a lower carbon power generation structure can it give full play to the advantages of the electric vehicle policy.