Carbon Emission Efficiency Analysis And Carbon Reduction Policy Evaluation In Thermal Power Generation Industr

At the 75 th United Nations General Assembly in September 2020,the Chinese government announced its “Carbon Peak and Neutrality” target of achieving both carbon peak and carbon neutrality.This not only reflects China’s great responsibility in addressing climate change,but also demonstrates its firm determination to achieve high-quality development.The “Carbon Peak and Neutrality” target will have profound impacts on China’s future socio-economic operations,industrial structure layout,ecological environment quality,and consumption patterns.Especially in the field of energy and electricity,its implementation will trigger systemic changes in multiple dimensions.Faced with the increasing demand for energy and the tightening constraints of carbon emissions,the thermal power generation industry,as an important energy sector and major source of carbon emissions in China,will become the key to ensuring China’s economic and social development’s electricity demand and achieving the “Carbon Peak and Neutrality” target.Against the backdrop of the “Carbon Peak and Neutrality” target,this paper focuses on the heavily regulated thermal power generation industry.Firstly,it reviews and summarizes the literature related to carbon emission efficiency and carbon emission trading policies,elaborates on relevant theories,and provides a theoretical basis for subsequent research.Secondly,it calculates the carbon emissions of China’s thermal power generation industry from 2006 to 2020 and analyzes their changing trends.It uses the Super-SBM-Undesirable model to calculate and analyze the carbon emission efficiency of China’s thermal power generation industry in various provinces and cities from 2006 to 2020,and conducts dynamic change analysis based on the Global-Malmquist-Luenberger model to decompose carbon emission efficiency.Finally,it uses a Difference-in-Difference model to empirically test the carbon emission reduction effect of carbon emission trading policies on the thermal power generation industry,explores the potential emission reduction mechanisms and underlying reasons of the industry,and discusses the policy effects of carbon emission trading policies.Based on the research conclusions,relevant suggestions are proposed to promote the energy-saving and emission reduction transformation of China’s thermal power generation industry and contribute to the whole society’s victory in achieving carbon neutrality.The main conclusions drawn are as follows:(1)The carbon emissions of the thermal power generation industry showed an increasing trend during the research period,but their growth rate has slowed down since 2012.Although thermal power generation still dominates in the short and medium term in China,it is necessary to reduce the construction of new thermal power units and reasonably and flexibly transform the existing ones.(2)The static analysis results show that the carbon emission efficiency of the thermal power generation industry fluctuates similarly at the regional level,but the efficiency values differ significantly among different regions.At the provincial level,each province shows a diversified development trend,and there is no unified development path.The dynamic analysis results show that the carbon emission efficiency of the thermal power generation industry has been improved in all provinces of China,and conducting technological innovation activities is the main way to improve carbon emission efficiency.(3)Carbon emission trading policies have significantly reduced the carbon emissions of the thermal power generation industry in pilot areas,but the policies did not show a significant improvement in the green total factor productivity(GTFP)of the industry.This suggests that Porter’s hypothesis does not hold in China’s thermal power generation industry.Analysis of potential emission reduction mechanisms reveals that a decrease in thermal power generation is a major contributor to reducing carbon emissions in the industry.Further discussion of policy effects indicates that the carbon emission trading policy has generated positive spillover effects.