Research On Demand Forecast & Multi-Channel Allocation Technology Of Heavy-Haul Railway Transportation Market In China

Since 2018,China Railway has implemented Freight Incremental Action.Among them,coal is an important category for undertaking freight increments,and heavy-hall rail transportation is the main way of coal transportation.The increment of coal category has inherent requirements for heavy-hall transportation.Based on this,there is an urgent need to analyze the demand for heavy-hall railway transportation,fully understand the changes in demand for heavy-hall railway transportation,and give full play to the capacity of heavy-hall railway transportation channels to provide support for the construction and investment of decision-making projects and the completion of freight increments,thereby driving railway coal traffic volume further increase,in order to provide protection for coal transportation.This article conducts in-depth research on the forecast and allocation of heavy-hall railway transportation market demand from the following aspects through field research and expert consultation.(1)Describes the distribution of coal resources in the "Three West" regions,summarizes the number and production capacity distribution of coal mines produced in the region and those that have been approved and started construction,and analyzes the situation of coal decapacity across the country.(2)On the basis of studying the changes in the market supply and demand of the coal industry in recent years,the overall supply and demand matching situation in China’s coal market is analyzed,and then the market development prospects of the coal industry are proposed.(3)The overall coal transportation pattern of different modes such as railways,waterways and highways are studied.On this basis,the flow of coal transportation in the "Three West" regions and the flow of major heavy-hall railway lines are analyzed in detail.(4)Analyze the key factors influencing the demand of heavy-hall railway transportation market from the four aspects of macro environment,market supply and demand,competitive environment and railway supply,establish a forecast model of heavy-hall railway transportation market demand based on artificial neural network and system dynamics,and the two models are combined to obtain the predicted value of future heavy-hall railway transportation market demand.(5)Based on the analysis of the occurrence of heavy-hall railway transportationdemand and the composition of the attraction area and the intra-regional rail network,with the minimum transportation cost as the goal,comprehensive consideration of line capacity constraints,a heavy-hall railway line transportation demand allocation model was established,and the gravity model was used to further allocate the main OD transportation needs of the line.Finally,taking the Wari Railway as an example,the distribution requirements of the Wari Railway and the main OD transportation requirements were allocated.