Power Demand Forecasting Method Under The Background Of "Double Carbon"

The paper of power demand forecasting is of great significance in power systems.In the short term,power demand forecasting is used to guide power production,scheduling,and maintain the safe and stable operation of the power grid;In the long run,the power demand forecast results have an important guiding role for grid investment,construction,transformation,expansion,and other activities.At the same time,as an important indicator of economic development,power load also has a certain data support role for China’s energy strategic deployment,economic development layout,and other major plans.Since the goal of"carbon peak,carbon neutral" was proposed,China has issued a series of policies and development plans from top to bottom to support the realization of the "double carbon" goal.China’s economic development,energy consumption,and industrial development will undergo profound changes in the coming decades.Accordingly,the impact of "double carbon" should also be considered in the work of power demand forecasting.The objective factors considered by traditional power demand prediction methods no longer meet the needs of the "double carbon" target background.Therefore,a power demand prediction method that considers the "double carbon" target scenario urgently needs to be proposed.Based on the above research background,this article first summarizes the "double carbon" related policies at the macro level,analyzes the current situation and characteristics of electricity demand in different industries at the meso level,and summarizes the main growth points of electricity demand;Secondly,the basic methods and processes of electricity demand prediction were introduced,and common methods and principles of electricity demand prediction were summarized.The advantages,disadvantages,and applicable conditions of each prediction method were compared;Thirdly,based on the mode of multiple loads participating in the "network load" interaction under the "double carbon" goal,a demand response potential evaluation model based on two segment clustering is constructed to evaluate the possible peak shaving effect of the growing demand side resource capacity and to forecast the maximum load in the following text;Finally,according to the analysis of power market demand under the "double carbon" goal and the research on the potential of demand response in Chapter 4,under the "double carbon" goal scenario,the medium and long-term power demand forecasting model based on system dynamics and the maximum load forecasting model based on X-12-ARIMA considering demand response are constructed.This paper takes a certain area in the northwest as an example for empirical analysis,and sets three scenarios under different "double carbon" policy intensities:baseline scenario,no "double carbon" target scenario,and strengthened "double carbon" target scenario,aiming to explore the sensitivity of electricity demand to the "double carbon" target policy;Through comparative analysis,it was found that from the perspective of the power grid,the "double carbon" goal enhances both the substitution effect of electricity and the intensity of energy conservation and emission reduction.In terms of industries,under the "double carbon" goal,the energy conservation and emission reduction effects of the primary and secondary industries are more prominent,while the energy substitution effect of the tertiary industry is more significant.