Research On Demand Forecasting And Supporting Degree Of Coal Resources In Haixi State,Qinghai Province

Coal is one of the most important energy resources and industrial raw materials in Haixi State,Qinghai province,so the coal industry is related to the sustainable development of regional economy and energy security.This paper,based on the analyze of production conditions and distribution law of coal resources of Haixi State,and of the status of exploitation and utilization of coal resources during the 12 th Five-Year Plan,has assessed the economic and technical efficiency of coal resources,analyzed the factors of influences on demand and the potentialities and advantage of resources,putted forward the future evaluation of the supply and demand,as well as the consumption,in order to support strategically the intensive,safe,efficient and green modern coal industry system in the next decade and during the 13 th Five-Year Plan.Preliminary research results are as follows:1.Based on the analyze of status of coal resources and their exploitation in Haixi State,is assessed the economic and technical value of coal exploitation.The study shows that the coal resources of Haixi State,benefiting from a good condition of mineral reserves and its ranking of economical development value in all of mineral reserves of Haixi State(with the second largest-reserves),proved obvious advantages.Therefore,the scientific prospecting and reasonable exploitation would contribute to improve the investment benefits of mineral exploitation,to relieve the shortage of energy supply,and even to stabilize the economic development of Haixi State and Qinghai province.2.By means of the elastic coefficient prediction model,multivariate linear regression model and the gray model based on Matlab,this paper estimated and forecasted that the overall demand of coals would still be in a growing tendance during the 13 th Five-Year Plan and even in the next decade,whereas the growth rate would be declining year by year,and that in 2020,the total demand of coals in Haixi State would reach to 11,6938 million tons,and to 17.6238 million tons in 2025.3.A series of predictions showed that,during the 13 th Five-Year Plan and even in the next decade,the coals market in Haixi State would still be remaining in great demand,that the status of coals as the main energy source would not be changed,and that the coals would still be the most stable,economically and independently guaranteed energy of the region.Based on the above,the paper proposed the countermeasures and suggestions of exploitation and utilization of coals in Haixi State: accelate the transformation and upgrading of coal-to-chemicals industry;focused on green and efficient use and on supporting the chamical industry of salt lake,develop the downstream products of coal-to-chemicals industry and construct industrial chain of developping coals energy,coal-to-chemicals industrial chain,as well as industrial chain of integrated utilization of mining by-products,in order to build an industrial mining cluster and to promote the economical and social sustainable development of Haixi State.