Study On Characteristics And Game Mechanism Of Petroleum Trade Network Between China And "Belt And Road" Countries

At present,China’ oil import had exceeded 65% warning line,it’s urgent to guarantee the safety of oil import security.“Belt and Road” is the main source of China’s oil import.With the deepening of “Belt and Road”,it’s great significance to guarantee China’s oil import security by promoting the energy relationship between China and the exporting country.The paper use the double difference model,evolutionary game and social network analysis to study the trade relationship between China and “Belt and Road” and the game mechanism of oil trade.To give some suggestion for promoting oil cooperation between China and “Belt and Road” countries,and consolidate China’ oil import source in “Belt and Road” region.First,by establishing the double difference model between China and “Belt and Road” and non-“Belt and Road”,the paper studies the impact of “Belt and Road”initiative on China’s oil import.Then,by establishing the oil import network between China and the "Belt and Road Initiative" country,this paper studies the characteristics of the "Belt and Road Initiative" oil import network in China,and forecasts the future oil trade volume between China and the major trading countries by using the grey Markov chain.Finally,in order to understand more comprehensively the game mechanism in“Belt and Road” member countries,the paper constructs the four-country evolutionary game on the base of two-country evolutionary game in the past,and studies the evolution result of the game of four countries by building simulation model.The results show that the initiative of “Belt and Road” reduces China’s dependence on oil import from nor-“Belt and Road”,and shifts the force of China’s oil import to the“Belt and Road” area.According to the oil import network of China and “Belt and Road”,it can be found that the Middle East is not only the force of China’s oil import,but also the force of competition between China and other major oil import country,and has a great effect on the China’s oil import safety.And through the gray Markeo chain prediction,it can be protected that the oil import volume between China and Russia,Azerbaijan will increase significantly in the future.In the evolutionary game of four-countries,it’s found that every country’s evolutionary stable strategy is affected byother trade country’s strategy by replicating dynamic equation.Then constructed the simulation model by the Matlab,and it is found that the positive cooperation is decided by the import and export countries income and potential cost,and the strategy choice of trade countries;From the prospective of the energy competence,it’s found that there are asymmetric barriers to the trade between different import countries,and the effect of the barriers is more efficient when the import country is not willing to cooperate with the export country.It’s confirmed that the oil trade mechanism between the “Belt and Road”countries is complicated.