Research On The Evolution Of Coupling Relationship Between Urbanization And Carbon Emission

China's urbanization has advanced tremendously,which also caused serious conflicts.Rapid urbanization has led to an increasing amount of carbon dioxide,and climate change mainly caused by carbon dioxide has threatened the urbanization process.The pathway to alleviate the conflict is low-carbon urbanization.However,China's low-carbon urbanization is still in the initial stage of low-carbon urbanization.And there isn't a complete the policy system for low-carbon urbanization.Therefore,this paper aims to provide theoretical basis for policy formulation by empirically studying the level and evolution of low-carbon urbanization in 30 provinces/cities in China.The evaluation index for the level of low-carbon urbanization is the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and carbon emission.The higher couping coordination degree,the higher level of low-carbon urbanization.This paper mainly applies the newly established coupling coordination degree model to evaluate low-carbon urbanization level of 30 provinces/cities in China for 21 years(from 1995 to 2015).Since the coupling coordination degree model is applicable to the coupled systems,this paper firstly analyzes the systematicness of urbanization and carbon emissions to determine the applicability of the coupling coordination degree model.Then,a new coupling coordination degree model is established,which based on the limitation analysis of the traditional coupling coordination degree model and the Synergistic Theory,The validity of the newly established model is verified through empirical research.After clarifying the validity of the coupling coordination degree model,this paper deeply analyzes the characteristics and evolution of the coupling relationship between urbanization and carbon emission from the perspective of time and space.From the time dimension,this paper analyzes the interaction rules between urbanization and carbon emission system by fitting the performance data of the two systems.In addition,the dynamic evolutions of coupling coordination degree in provinces/citys is researched,and the reasons behind the evolution are also analyzed.From the spatial dimension,this paper analyzes the spatial distribution of coupling stage between urbanization and carbon emission system.Additionaly,the spatial distribution characteristics and dynamic change of coupling coordination degree in China are studied by applying the global spatial autocorrelation model and local spatial autocorrelation model within Arcgis software.The main conclusions are as follows: 1)The subjectivity of the traditional coupling degree model would distort the evaluation results to some extent,while the newly constructed coupling degree model can eliminate the influence of the subjectivity,so the newly constructed coupling degree model is a relatively effective model.And the model can be applied to the evaluation of coordination degree of any two coupled systems.2)Empirical studies in 30 provinces/cities show that the interaction between urbanization and carbon emission system does not follow a uniform rule,and rules can be partial "S",partial "N" or partial "U";3)The coupling coordination degree between urbanization and carbon emission of 30 provinces/cities in China is generally promoted,the driving force of which is the improvement of urbanization level;4)There is a phenomenon of unbalanced development in China's low-carbon urbanization,which is becoming more and more serious.This phenomenon is reflected by that the global autocorrelation index of 30 provinces/cities in China has decreased significantly in recent years,and there was a cluster with low level of low-carbon urbanization in China in 2015.According to the results,this paper puts forward three main suggestions.A big data monitoring platform to monitor the development trend of urbanization and prevent provinces/cities developing into high-carbon urbanazation model needs to establised.Then,improving the level of low-carbon development is imperative,and the theoretical framework of energy structure adjustment needs to be put forward.Finally,we should give priority to supporting regions with relatively lagged low-carbon urbanization level and encourage interprovincial cooperation in low-carbon urbanization.This study is of both and theoretical significance.Practically,this study can provide theoretical references for the formulation of low-carbon urbanization policies.Theoretically,this research can enrich the literature on the coupling relationship between urbanization and carbon emission.