Research On Air Pollution Mitigation Strategy In Fujian Province Based On Ecological Input-output-factorial Analysis Model

With the rapid development of the economy,the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization,the energy consumption of various production activities is increasing sharply.At the same time,resulting in excessive emission of various air pollutants,air pollution has become a huge challenge hindering the sustainable development of cities.In this context,how to effectively evaluate the urban air pollutant emissions,identify the key factors causing air pollution,and formulate reasonable mitigation strategies,has become an urgent issue to be solved.In this study,a multi-stage factorial ecological extended input-output model is developed for identifying optimal air pollution mitigation strategies by coupling ecological extended input-output model,ecological network analysis,factorial analysis（including Taguchi analysis and full factor analysis）and entropy-based-TOPSIS evaluation method.The model can not only identify the major emission sectors and transfer paths of air pollutants,but also reveal the effect of main socioeconomic factors on urban air pollution.Specifically,an air pollutant input-output model and metabolic system are first established through value-based input-output table,to calculate the emission of air pollutants in various sectors,reveal the pollutant flows between sectors,and explore the ecological relationships among sectors and the health of the metabolic system.Then,based on the evaluation results,Taguchi analysis is used to identify the key factors affecting urban air pollutant emissions and metabolic system health.Finally,based on the identified key factors,full factor analysis is used to explore the interaction between factors,analyze the pollution mitigation effect under different factor level combinations,and determine the optimal mitigation strategy by combining the entropy-based-TOPSIS evaluation method.The developed model is applied to Fujian Province,with 2012 and 2017 as the base years,and the main findings include:（1）electricity production and supply sector,transportation sector,non-metallic mineral manufacturing sector,chemical product manufacturing sector and metal smelting and processing sector are the major air pollutant emission sectors in Fujian Province,contributing 87.1%,84.6%,88.1%and 71.2%of NO_x,SO₂,PM and VOCs emissions in 2017;（2）electricity production and supply sector is the main pollutant outflow sector,and construction sector and equipment manufacturing sector are the main inflow sectors;（3）in the metabolic system,electricity production and supply sector and chemical product manufacturing sector have significant control with a total driving force greater than 0.514,equipment manufacturing sector and textile sector have significant dependence with a total pulling force greater than 0.181;（4）the robustness of the metabolic system increased by about 12%in 2017,but it was still in a"sub-health"state with high redundancy and low efficiency;（5）the emissions of NO_xand SO₂,as well as the coal consumption of electricity production and supply sector are significant factors affecting the change of air pollution equivalent in Fujian Province,and their total impact contribution is as high as 89.9%;the direct consumption coefficient of equipment manufacturing sector,as well as the coal consumption of chemical product manufacturing sector and non-metallic mineral manufacturing sector are significant factors affecting the health of the metabolic system,and their total impact contribution is as high as 98.1%;（6）implementing strict coal consumption restrictions on electricity production and supply sector,and strictly controlling NO_xand SO₂emissions from key sectors are the most effective strategies to alleviate local air pollution;under the optimal scenario,the emissions of NO_x,SO₂,PM and VOCs can be reduced by24.8%,27.3%,15.1%and 8.8%respectively,and the system robustness can be increased by6.6%.The findings of this paper are expected to provide scientific support for policymakers to adjust related economic and energy activities to mitigate air pollution.