Analysis Of Electric Power Demand Forecasting In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area Under The Background Of Air Pollution Prevention And Control

With the rapid development of social economy,energy consumption is fast and environmental problems are becoming more and more serious.The total amount of pollutants discharged remains high,and the environmental situation is very bad.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the most polluted area in China,and has become the main position of haze control in China.In recent years,the state and local governments have promulgated relevant policies for air pollution prevention and control,accelerated the comprehensive treatment of air pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas,and carried out action to control air pollution within a time limit in the electric power,iron and steel,cement and flat glass industries.The prevention and control of air pollution has promoted the de-production capacity and technological improvement of energy-consuming industries,and accelerated the process of electric energy substitution,thus causing more uncertainty to the future electric power demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Therefore,this paper carries out a series of studies on electricity demand forecasting in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under the background of air pollution prevention and control,analyzing the impact of air pollution prevention and control policies on electricity demand,considering the potential of regional substitution electricity,and judging the future trend of electricity demand more scientifically and effectively.Accurate forecasting of electricity demand is of vital importance to improve the stability and economy of power system operation,laying a foundation for scientific and rational power grid planning.This paper focuses on the prediction of power demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei under the background of air pollution prevention and control.Firstly,the current situation of electric power demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is expounded from three aspects.namely,total electric power consumption,structure of electric power consumption and elasticity of electric power conumption.The related influencing factors of electric power demand are summarized.Based on grey correlation analysis,the key indicators affecting electric power demand are screened out.which lays a foundation for electric power demand prediction:secondly,it combs and summarizes the status of air pollutant emission in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in recent years and the related policies of air pollution prevention and control,analyzes the specific impact of air pollution prevention and control policies on the electricity demand;then.it analyzes the current process and effectiveness of electric power substitution in China.The feasibility and the necessity of electric energy substitution are briefly described.Based on GM(1,1)model of grey prediction,the substitution electric energy in Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei is forecasted,and the rationality of the forecasting results is analyzed to some extent.Finally,combined with the regression analysis method,ARIMA model and BP neural network structure,a combined forecasting model of basic electric power demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is built.Shapley value in game theory is introduced as the weight assignment method of each single model in the combined model,realizing the forecasting of future basic electric power demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Combining with the forecasting results of electric power substitution,the future electric power demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is obtained.