Measurement And Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Carbon Emissions In Shanxi Province

With the increasingly severe global climate change and environmental pollution problems,the low-carbon economy has become the focus of attention in many fields such as economic,social and environmental science research in various countries.In order to alleviate global climate change,China proposes to achieve the goal of“achieving carbon emission reductions of 60%-65%on the basis of 2005 by 2030”.Achieving carbon emission reduction targets requires the production and operation of any industry and resource utilization activities to reduce carbon emissions to different levels and promote the development of a low-carbon economy.As an industry that interacts with the natural environment,agriculture is not only directly affected by climate change,but also emits greenhouse gases in production and management,which intensifies climate change.Therefore,attaching importance to agricultural carbon emission reduction and promoting the development of low-carbon agriculture is a requirement for the development of low-carbon economy.As an important agricultural province,Shanxi has a relatively fragile agro-ecological environment.The development of agricultural economy is mainly based on planting and animal husbandry.The impact of carbon emissions from production and management activities on climate and ecological environment cannot be ignored.This research mainly uses data analysis method,data envelopment analysis and quantitative analysisand empirical research method.Based on the perspective of large agriculture,and according to the development status of planting and animal husbandry in Shanxi Province,the agricultural carbon emission measurement system of Shanxi Province is constructed reasonably.To research The overall situation of agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province from 1997 to 2016,the measurement of total carbon emissions from agriculture and the application of SBM model are adopted to empirically measure the agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Shanxi Province.And using LMDI model to analyze the impact of agricultural carbon intensity,agricultural structure,agricultural economic level and agricultural labor factors on agricultural carbon emissions.On the one hand,it is conducive to enriching the research on Shanxi’s agricultural carbon emissions,and on the other hand,it proposes countermeasures to promote Shanxi’s agricultural carbon emission reduction,which also has certain significance for the sustainable development and ecological environment construction of low-carbon agriculture in Shanxi.Through research,the main conclusions are as follows:（1）The total amount of agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province from 1997 to 2016 is in a slow and volatility,increasing from 12.1964 million tons of CO₂eq in 1997 to 12.509 million tons of CO₂eq in 2016.The average annual growth rate is 0.13%.The trend of the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions can be divided into three main stages of“fluctuation rising-slow reduction-steady growth”,and the ring growth rate has declined in recent years,and the growth rate is negative.From the perspective of carbon emission structure,animal husbandry and straw burning are the two main carbon sources of agriculture in Shanxi Province,and the carbon emissions of planting systems are low.After 2007,the carbon emissions from straw burning were basically the same as those in the livestock industry.In addition,in the past 20 years,the intensity of agricultural carbon emission in Shanxi Province has decreased,showing a trajectory of“fluctuation rising-rapid decline-steady decline”,while the trend of agricultural carbon emission density is relatively flat,consistent with the trend of agricultural carbon emissions.The carbon emission density averaged 3.22tCO₂eq/ha.（2）The empirical measurement of SBM model based on undesired output sh ow that Shanxi’s agricultural carbon emission efficiency showed a fluctuating decl ine from 1997 to 2016.Compared with the national agricultural carbon emission e fficiency,the average agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Shanxi is 0.1993,th e lowest in the central region,ranking 30th in the country.According to the resul ts of ML index decomposition,the technical changes and technical efficiency have different effects on the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of Shanxi Provinc e at different stages.The results of empirical measurement indicate that Shanxi’s a gricultural carbon emission efficiency is low.In the process of agricultural product ion and management,there is a phenomenon of excessive investment in agricultu ral resources,insufficient expected output or excessive output of undesired output,and should pay attention to the important role of technological change factorsin agricultural carbon emission reduction.（3）Based on the LMDI model research,agricultural carbon intensity factors and structural factors are the two main factors that inhibit agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province,achieving agricultural carbon emission reduction of 7,851,600 tons and 851,300 tons,respectively.Agricultural economic development and labor factors are the driving factors for agricultural carbon emissions,contributing a total of 8,307,500tons and 708,800 tons of carbon emissions,and the contribution rate analysis shows that agricultural carbon intensity and agricultural economic levels have the greatest impact on the agricultural carbon emissions.（4）Finally,according to the measurement on the total amount,efficiency and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Shanxi Province from 1997 to2016,it is proposed to transform the input mode of agricultural resources,further adjust and optimize the agricultural structure,standardize and optimize the utilization of agricultural waste,strengthen the professional quality of farmers,and improve the agricultural science and technology service system,to contribute to the realization of Shanxi’s agricultural carbon emission reduction,and promote the healthy and sustainable development of low-carbon agriculture.