| Reducing greenhouse gas emissions has become the focus of attention around the world,and agriculture is the second largest source of greenhouse gases.The "dual carbon" goal proposed by China at the 75 th United Nations General Assembly clarifies the direction of future agricultural development,and also indicates that future agricultural development must strive to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.Under the strategic background of carbon neutrality and carbon peak,this study takes Tai’an City,Shandong Province,as the research object.Based on the theory of low-carbon economy,sustainable development,and agricultural versatility,combined with the statistical yearbook of Tai’an City,it analyzes the current situation of agricultural development in Tai’an City from the research area overview,agricultural output value,agricultural product production,agricultural cultivation,and resource utilization;On this basis,the carbon emission coefficient method issued by the IPCC was used to select six carbon emission sources,namely agricultural film,agricultural diesel,pesticides,agricultural irrigation,land ploughing and fertilizer,to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions of Tai’an City,Shandong Province in 2011-2021;Next,the LMDI decomposition model is used to decompose the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Tai’an City,and the influencing factors are divided into five factors: agricultural production efficiency,agricultural industrial structure,per capita agricultural gross domestic product,urbanization level,and rural population size;Finally,based on the calculation results of agricultural carbon emissions in Tai’an City and analysis of relevant influencing factors,countermeasures and suggestions for agricultural carbon emission reduction in Tai’an City are proposed.Based on the research results,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)The overall agricultural carbon emissions in Tai’an City show a trend of first rising and then falling.Among the agricultural carbon emissions sources in Tai’an City,chemical fertilizers are the largest agricultural carbon emissions source,and the carbon emissions generated by the use of chemical fertilizers account for 49.43% of the total carbon emissions;(2)According to the LMDI impact factor decomposition model,the contribution of agricultural carbon emissions from five factors,namely agricultural production efficiency,agricultural industrial structure,per capita agricultural gross domestic product,urbanization level,and rural population,was analyzed.The results show that agricultural production efficiency factors and rural population have inhibitory effects on agricultural carbon emissions;The per capita agricultural gross domestic product factor,urbanization level factor,and agricultural production structure factor promote agricultural carbon emissions;(3)This article further proposes corresponding agricultural carbon emission reduction countermeasures from four aspects: personnel,policy,industrial structure,and technology,providing theoretical basis and reasonable suggestions for Tai’an City to reduce agricultural carbon emissions and achieve the "dual carbon" goal. |
