Temporal And Spatial Distribution Of Ecological Carrying Capacity In Shandong Province Based On MODIS Data

The ecological environment is the main space for biological survival and development.In the past few decades,with the increasing human activities,the ecological environment has been affected to some extent.As a major agricultural product province in China,Shandong’s ecosystem structure is closely related to ecological security.Based on MODIS data,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial variation of NPP in different vegetation types in Shandong Province.At the same time,the NPP-based ecological footprint method is used to calculate the per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity of Shandong Province from 2001 to 2013,and the per capita ecological deficit/surplus of Shandong Province is calculated based on the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity,which is beneficial to Shandong Province.Create a healthy ecological environment and rationally develop and utilize limited resources to make scientific and effective decision-making and management.The main research conclusions are as follows:（1）The average NPP of vegetation in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2014 was442 g C·m^-2·a^-1.Among them,the average NPP below 300 g C·m^-2·a^-1 is concentrated in Jinan City,Zibo City,Laiwu City,Tai’an City and Jining City,accounting for 11.72%of the total area;NPP average 300⁴00 The distribution of g C·m^-2·a^-1 is in most parts of western Shandong,accounting for more than half of the total area（52.28%）;the average annual value of NPP is 400⁵00 g C·m^-2·a^-1Most of them are distributed in Weifang City,Rizhao City and Linyi City,and a few are distributed in Heze City,South of Zaozhuang City,and the west of Yantai City and Qingdao City,accounting for 13.89%of the total area;the average value of NPP is more than 500 g C·m^-2·a^-1.The area of is located in the coastal area of northeastern Shandong Province,accounting for 22.11%,and the maximum is in Weihai.（2）From 2000 to 2014,the annual average value of vegetation NPP in Shandong Province was 63.16 T g C,which increased and decreased with time.From 2000 to2004,NPP continued to increase.There is an increase.From 2000 to 2014,the average slope of vegetation NPP in Shandong Province was 3.29 g C·m^-2·a^-1.Among them,92.36%of vegetation NPP showed an increasing trend,and 7.64%of vegetation NPP showed a decreasing trend.The average interannual variation of NPP is positive in the positive region（increasing trend）of 3.93 g C·m^-2·a^-1;the mean value of NPP showing a decreasing trend is-2.80 g C·m^-2·a^-1.The interannual growth rates of different land cover types in Shandong Province are different.Vegetation NPP grows at an average rate of 4.69 g C·m^-2·a^-1 in grassland,and the growth trend is the most obvious;the growth rate of forest land is 4.54 g.C·m^-2·a^-1,only under the grass.The average growth rates of cultivated land,towns and waters were 3.39,2.37 and 2.60 g C·m^-2·a^-1,respectively.（3）Based on the ecological footprint model,this paper calculates the ecological footprint of Shandong Province from 2001 to 2013 based on the land use data of Shandong Province and the whole country and related statistical data.The results show that the per capita ecological footprint of Shandong Province showed irregular changes from 2001 to 2013,but the overall trend showed a downward trend.From2001 to 2013,the total reduction was 0.0121 hm².The ecological footprint of Shandong Province is not balanced.Among the six ecological footprints,the per capita ecological footprint of cultivated land exceeds 80%.It can be seen that the ecological footprint of Shandong Province from 2001 to 2013 is mainly determined by the ecological footprint of cultivated land.The overall increase in the per capita ecological footprint of forest land is due to the increased demand for forestry products by humans,which has increased the consumption of forestry products by 144%in 13years.The per capita ecological footprint of construction land has increased rapidly,with an average annual increase rate of 19.45%.（4）This paper uses the ecological carrying capacity model,based on the land use data of Shandong Province and the whole country,and related statistical data to calculate the ecological carrying capacity of Shandong Province from 2001 to 2013.The results show that the per capita ecological carrying capacity of Shandong Province in 2001-2013 generally showed a downward trend.The ecological carrying capacity of Shandong Province is not balanced,and the per capita ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land accounts for more than 80%,followed by grassland.This is mainly due to the land resource structure in Shandong Province.（5）The ecological status of Shandong Province from 2001 to 2013 was an ecological surplus,and the surplus in the fluctuations showed a decreasing trend.From 2008 to 2012,although it was an ecological surplus year,the per capita ecological surplus value continued to decrease,and the ecological environment was continuously weakened.It rebounded slightly in 2013.