Assessment Of Land Carrying Capacity Based On Improved 3D Ecological Footprint Model On Low Ground Of Back River Of The Lower Yellow River

Land carrying capacity is an important index to measure the social and economic development of a region.Ecological footprint model is an important method for evaluating land carrying capacity.This study takes Lankao County on Low Ground of back river of the lower Yellow River as the research object.Based on the improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model,the ecological footprint depth,footprint breadth and three-dimensional ecological footprint of Lankao County from 2010 to 2015 were calculated,and the consumption of natural resources was analyzed.And based on the results of the model calculation,the land carrying capacity index and the land use sustainable development index were introduced to study the overloading of the land system and the level of regional ecological sustainable development.According to the situation of the three-dimensional ecological footprint curve and the ecological carrying capacity curve,the time series prediction model is used to predict the ecological status of Lankao County in2016-2030,and the pressure of human consumption to the ecosystem is evaluated,so as to evaluate the ecological construction level of the study area more comprehensively.The conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2015,the three-dimensional ecological footprint of research area showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.The change of per capita ecological footprint of each township is not entirely consistent with the overall situation of each township.In addition to Chengguan Town,Sanyizhai Township,Batou Township,Guying Township,Mengzhai Township,Xuhe Township,Putaojia Township,Yanlou Township,the development trend of per capita ecological footprint is consistent with the overall development trend,the other townships are different in varying degrees.The change rate of ecological footprint of water,construction land and fossil fuel land in each township of Lankao County is positive,showing an upward trend as a whole.The ecological footprint of cultivated land shows a steady and increasing trend during the study period.The change of ecological footprint of forest land in each township has obvious difference,the degree of change is uneven,and the change direction is different.The footprint depth of cultivated land in each township is greater than 1,except Chengguan Town,zhuaying Township,Guying Township,Mengzhai Township and Yanlou Township,the footprint depth of cultivated land footprint fluctuated during the study period,and the footprint depth of cultivated land were stable between2 and 3 in other townships during the study period.There is a big difference in the footprints depth of fossil fuels in various townships,but the overall trend is increasing year by year.During the study period,the per capita footprint breadth of Lankao County declined overall.Except for Batou Township,Guying Township,Mengzhai Township,Xuhe Township and Putaojia Township,the per capita ecological footprint breadth of other townships is less than 0.1 hm~2.(2)From 2010 to 2015,Lankao County was always in the state of ecological deficit,but the overall situation was relatively stable.On the whole,the ecological deficit situation in Lankao County may have an increasing trend,and the land carrying capacity is facing challenges.Farmland and fossil fuel land have always been in the state of ecological deficit,which has become the main source of regional deficit.The region is facing severe ecological pressure,forest land,water area and construction land are in the state of ecological surplus.During the study period,except Chengguan Town and Yifeng Township,other townships were in the state of ecological deficit.From 2016 to 2030,the per capita ecological footprint and per capita carrying capacity of Lankao County showed an upward trend year by year,while the average annual growth rate of per capita ecological footprint was higher than that of per capita ecological carrying capacity,the ecological deficit was gradually expanding,and the regional development had deviated from the sustainable state.(3)From 2010 to 2015,the overall situation of land carrying capacity in Lankao County has been deteriorating.From 2010 to 2012,the situation of land carrying capacity in Lankao County deteriorated continuously,and the number of townships in a state of basic balance and general overload decreased,while the number of towns with mild overload and severe overload increased.From 2012 to 2015,the situation of land carrying capacity in Lankao County was gradually alleviated,the number of towns with severe and light overloads decreased,and the state of land carrying capacity in the county was constantly improved.Sanyizhai Township and Batou Township in the western region,Guying Township and Houyang Township in the northern region,Nanzhang Township,Xiaosong Township,Xuhe Township and Kao Township in the southern region are relatively serious in terms of land carrying capacity,which is basically in a slight overload state,while zhuaying Township,Yanlou Township in the central region and Yanlou Township and Mengzhai Township in the eastern part is the most serious.During the study period,Lankao County had a great ecological pressure and its land system was in an extremely unsafe state.In the early stage of the study,the unsustainable state of land in Lankao County increased continuously,and the number of towns with moderately and highiy unsustainable status increased continuously;in the latter part of the study,the regional ecological pressure was gradually relieved,the number of townships with highly unsustainable status decreased,and the insecurity of the ecosystem was gradually improved.Batou Township and Sanyizhai Township in the western region adjacent to Kaifeng City,Guyang Township and Mengzhai Township in the eastern region,Zhuaying Township,Hongmiao Town,Yanlou Township,Xiaosong Township,Putaojia Township in the central region,and Nanzhang Town and Kaocheng Town in the southern region all show a highly unsustainable state in different periods.