| In today’s global consensus on climate change,changing the development model of high-carbon economy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions has become a rational choice for the current national and regional economic development.As an open coastal area,in such a low carbon environment,Fujian Province-for the construction of ecological civilization demonstration area,to achieve low-carbon economic transformation and efforts.Therefore,it is very important to study the greenhouse gas emissions from Fujian Province,the analysis of influencing factors and the future trend forecast.In this paper,firstly,using the method of "provincial guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories",combined with the data obtained,the greenhouse gas carbon emissions in the process of agriculture and waste disposal in Fujian province were estimated,The results showed that the agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian Province continued to rise from 1987 to 1992,and decreased significantly from 1993 to 2015,Among them,agricultural land is the main source of emissions;The carbon emissions of waste disposal in Fujian province showed a large fluctuation trend in the 2000-2015 years,of which the wastewater treatment is its main source.Secondly,based on the principal component analysis,the factors affecting the carbon offset of agricultural and waste disposal were analyzed in detail.The results showed that the agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian Province were affected by agricultural economic level and agricultural production data.The amount of carbon to be treated is affected by the level of urbanization and the level of industrial development.Finally,the gray GM(1.1)forecast model is used to forecast the carbon emissions in the next five years,The results show that agricultural carbon emissions in 2020 will reach 15.6375 million tons,down by 10.51 percent from 2010 and CO2 emissions from waste disposal in 2020 will reach 761.216 million tons,up 45.64 percent from 2010. |
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