Analysis Of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases Inventory And Influencing Factors In Shandong Province From 2000 To 2017

Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are an important cause of climate warming.Shandong Province is a large agricultural province in China.The preparation of agricultural greenhouse gas inventories in Shandong Province,and the analysis of influencing factors and carbon emission trends are of great significance for the formulation of scientific and rational carbon emission reduction targets.First,based on the measurement method provided in the “Guidelines for the Preparation of Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories”,refer to the “2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories”,and compile the agricultural greenhouse gas inventory of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2017;The agricultural emission sources are selected in the province.On the basis of the Guidelines for the Compilation of Greenhouse Gas Inventories,with reference to the “First Biennial Update Report on Climate Change of the People’s Republic of China”,methane emissions from straw burning in the field were added,and nitrous oxide emissions from straw incineration were added to the indirect discharge of agricultural land.The results show that the total amount of agricultural carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in Shandong Province has been increasing from 2000 to 2005,and has been decreasing between 2005 and 2017.Agricultural land is the main source of emissions.In the methane emission inventory,animal intestinal fermentation is the main source of emissions,and agricultural land is the main source of emissions in the nitrous oxide emission inventory.Among the five agricultural sources,the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions are in the following order: agricultural land> animal intestinal fermentation> animal manure management> rice field planting> field straw burning.The uncertainty of the total amount of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2017 in Shandong Province is calculated to be ±21.39%~±25.48%.The arithmetic mean of the total annual uncertainty for 18 years is ±23.22%.Secondly,the Kaya model and principal component analysis method were used to analyze the influencing factors of agricultural carbon dioxide equivalent emissions.The results show that in the factor decomposition of Kaya model,the effect of agricultural carbon dioxide equivalent emission reduction is the agricultural production efficiency factor> labor scale factor> agricultural industrial structure factor,while the economic level factor leads to the increase of carbon emission;the influence based on principal component analysis In the analysis,the three main components affecting the carbon dioxide equivalent emission of agriculture are the scale of agriculture,the input of agricultural production materials,and the number of livestock and poultry.The scale of agriculture has the greatest impact on carbon emissions,including the reduction of agricultural labor,rice planting area,crop planting area and economic level,resulting in a reduction in agricultural carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in Shandong Province.Based on the analysis of two factors,it is found that agricultural production efficiency factors and labor scale factors are important factors leading to the reduction of agricultural carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in Shandong Province.Third,the gray GM(1,1)model predicts the trend of agricultural carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in Shandong Province from 2018 to 2022.The results show that the accuracy of the gray GM(1,1)model is qualified and can be used to predict the agricultural carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in Shandong Province.The forecast trend of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in Shandong Province from 2018 to 2022 will decrease year by year.The predicted carbon dioxide equivalent emissions for 2018 are 37.833 million tons,and the predicted carbon dioxide equivalent emissions for 2022 are 34.068 million tons.It is estimated that the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in 2022 will be 9.90% lower than 2017.