The Impact Of China Factor On International Oil Price

In recent years,the international oil market fluctuates frequently,and the international oil price has experienced many ups and downs.The existing research literature has confirmed the impact of international oil price on the macroeconomy.Different from the oil crisis in 1970 s,the recent oil price volatility is not caused by a shortage of crude oil production caused by oil supply,so in order to explain the fluctuations of oil price,economists then turned to oil demand changes.Meanwhile,the rapid economic growth of emerging economies such as China and India,especially,China has been a driving force for the recovery of world economy,which has attracted wide attention from international economists.Is the Chinese factor the cause of International Oil Volatility? Is there a link between Chinese factors and international oil prices? In this context,the impact of Chinese factors on international oil prices is measured.This paper studies from the perspective of international trade principle,we constructed the international oil price functions,and analyzed the sensitivity of international oil price for China factors.In order to guarantee China energy supply security,we put forward corresponding policy recommendations.The research content of this paper mainly includes the following aspects.First,we reviewed the relevant literature of oil price fluctuation,this paper expounded the general situation of the international oil market and oil prices,the influences and the causes of oil price fluctuation are summarized,the international oil price has great influence on the macro economy,while macroeconomic to a certain extent affect the price of oil,oil demand,oil supply,the dollar index and Chinese factor are the main influencing factors of the international oil price;Second,we introduced the power trade model and its related applications,and we used the model to quantitatively analyze the impacts of Chinese factor on the international oil price.And the international oil market was divided into two parts including Chinese factors and excluding Chinese factors,the price functions were constructed.The empirical results find Chinese factors not only affect the international oil price and the effect increased gradually.Third,we applied the vector error correction model to analyze the international oil price sensitivity for Chinese factors,the empirical findings indicate China oil demand and inventory will increase the international oil prices,international oil prices will suppress Chinese oil demand in a certain degree,and will promote the Chinese oil inventories;finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions based on these results.