Study On The Coupling Relationship Between The Transaction Price Of China’s Pilot Carbon Market

With the continuous increase in global greenhouse gas emissions,countries around the world are facing increasing climate risks.In response to the increasingly severe environmental problems,countries are paying more attention to the development of lowcarbon economies,focusing on carbon emission reduction work,continuously increasing the construction of carbon emission markets,and controlling greenhouse gas emissions.Research on carbon markets has become a key research object for more and more scholars.Since 2013,China has successively established eight carbon trading pilot projects in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Shenzhen,Hubei,Tianjin,Chongqing,and Fujian,gradually carrying out carbon product trading.After entering the new era of socialist construction,it has opened a national carbon market and gradually integrated national carbon trading work,promoting the achievement of the "3060" carbon emission reduction goal.This article studies the correlation degree of various pilot carbon markets,couples and correlates the trading prices of pilot carbon emission rights,and analyzes the impact of various influencing factors on the pilot coupled carbon prices.Based on the above analysis,it explores the obstacles and attention issues of China’s carbon market integration.Firstly,this article sorts out relevant literature on the factors influencing carbon prices in different fields,including energy prices,macroeconomic factors,foreign carbon prices,climate factors,etc.,and summarizes the relevant theories of carbon price spillover effects;Then elaborate on the relevant theories of the carbon emission rights market,analyze the current situation and problems of trading prices in China’s pilot carbon market,and then analyze the reasons for the coupling relationship between carbon prices;In the empirical analysis section,this article is divided into three parts.The first part uses the VAR model to study the spillover effects of carbon prices in the five carbon pilot trading markets of Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Shenzhen,and Hubei.The second part uses the coupling coordination model to calculate the coupling co scheduling of the two carbon pilot markets and explore the correlation between the pilot carbon markets.The third part incorporates macroeconomic,energy prices,and foreign carbon price factors into the VAR model,Explore the degree to which the coupling of carbon prices between pilot carbon markets is influenced by these three factors,and draw conclusions and recommendations based on empirical research.From the empirical results,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)The pilot carbon markets have the highest correlation with their own historical prices,indicating that the current marketability of China’s carbon market is weak.From the perspective of the coupling coordination between the pilot carbon markets,the coupling degree between Shenzhen and Hubei carbon pilot sites is good,while the coupling degree between Beijing and Shanghai carbon pilot sites is weak;(2)The three influencing factors studied in this article(macroeconomic,energy prices,and foreign carbon prices)will have a significant impact on the coupled carbon price of China’s carbon market.Due to differences in economic structure,development level,and openness,the degree of impact will also vary;(3)Among the specific indicators that affect carbon prices,the Shanghai Composite Index,thermal coal futures prices,and EUA futures prices all have a positive impact and a significant contribution.Therefore,in the future stage of building a national carbon market,the first step should be to choose a reasonable carbon price integration path based on the actual situation between pilot cities,combined with the impact of factors on coupled carbon prices.