Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Price Shock In China

As an important commodity,oil plays an important role in international economic and trade.With the acceleration of economic globalization and the deepening of my country’s opening up,the impact of oil price impact on my country’s macroeconomic has become increasingly greater.Therefore,it is an imminent and extremely important thing to explore what the existence of oil prices on my country’s macroeconomic existence.The main research idea of this article is to study the macroeconomic effect of oil price impact through the construction of the SVAR model and DSGE model.First of all,this article builds a four-variable SVAR model,applied short-term constraints and long-term constraints,and reflects the impact characteristic facts of petroleum prices through the analysis method of pulse response analysis and variance decomposition.Then,by constructing the benchmark DSGE model of the three departments,the impact of oil prices impact on the impact of the main macroeconomic variables in my country and analyzed the explanation of the theoretical model.Finally,the tax policy factors were introduced on the basis of the benchmark model to examine oil prices The effect of tax reduction policy under the impact finally concluded the following conclusions:(1)Under the framework of the SVAR model,under short-term constraints,the rise of oil prices has impact on my country’s main negative impact on China’s macroeconomic,which will cause the growth rate of output in the first phase to decrease and inflation level;Under long-term constraints,the negative effect on output is shorter,and the impact on the presence of inflation is positive and negative.From this,the actual situation of economic operation is more in line with short-term constraints.(2)Under the framework of the benchmark DSGE model,the positive impact of oil prices will have a negative impact on the output,residential consumption,corporate investment,capital stock,and labor market in my country long.Among them,the negative impact of the capital stock is the most significant,which shows that when the price of oil rises,it is mainly to reduce the level of output by curbing the investment of the enterprise.(3)In order to explore the explanation of the theoretical model,the pulse response diagram of the SVAR model and the benchmark DSGE model is combined.Both models show that the increase in oil prices has inhibited The characteristic facts have a good explanation.(4)Under the framework of the extension of the tax policy,the positive impact of oil prices will deepen the impact on the macroeconomic,but when the government implements tax reduction policies,it will have a positive impact on the macroeconomic economy.Therefore Can buffer the negative effects of the impact of oil prices.