Scenario Inference-based Emergency Materials Dispatch

Frequent emergencies pose a great threat to the lives and the property of people.Emergency materials are important guarantee for the people in disaster areas to survive the crisis.Therefore,how to dispatch various types of emergency materials from supply areas to disaster areas scientifically is the key to ensure the survival of the people.The traditional dispatching plan of emergency materials is formulated based on the subjective experience.It ignores the uniqueness and objectivity of the emergency scenario.Therefore,the dispatching mode of emergency materials should be shifted towards the "scenario-response" mode.Based on the above analysis,this paper studies the scenario inference-based dispatch of emergency materials.Firstly,the driving factors of the emergency materials dispatching scenario was analyzed.And the causality was used to infer the results of the factors.The results are the scenarios which the dispatching plan of emergency materials needs to deal with.It is composed of several sub-scenarios.So it is necessary to prioritize the sub-scenarios.In order to quantify the degree of priority,an evaluation system of the dispatching scenario of emergency materials was established and the Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to evaluate the scenarios.Secondly,after the emergency materials were classified,demand was inferred according to the objects.Demand objects were divided into three parts: uninjured,injured,rescuer.And the number of injuries can be inferred by the total number of injured and the rate of rescue.Taking Wench earthquake rescue as the subjective experience source,and the number of injuries in Cushy earthquake can be inferred with its objective conditions.Therefore,the correctness of the infer model driven by the total number of injures and the rescue rate was verified.Thirdly,a scenario inference-based dispatching model of emergency materials for multi-supply areas,multi-disaster areas was established under situations that the emergency materials supply can not meet the demand and the emergency materials supply can meet the demand.And the model was apply to multi-emergency materials and multi--transport modes.Finally,Artificial Fish Algorithm was designed to solve the emergency materials dispatching problem.The solution results illustrated the advantages of the scenario inference-based dispatch of emergency materials.The dispatching model established in this paper aims at efficiency and fairness.What’s more,emergency materials dispatching scenarios are used to infer scenario coefficients and the emergency materials demand.So the model is more in line with scenarios than traditional models,and can improve the accuracy of emergency materials demand analysis.In summary,scenario inference-based dispatching model of emergency materials can provide theoretical reference and action basis that are more in line with scenarios for emergency rescues.