Research On Emergency Plan Evaluation Of Emergencies Under Uncertain Expectations

Emergencies have great contingency and uncertainty that can pose a serious threat to life and property.Emergency plan is a response plan developed for emergencies.It is used to reduce the losses caused by emergencies through disrupting them quickly and effectively.Before implementation,it is necessary to evaluate all the alternative emergency plans.Selecting a better one assisted in emergency decision-making can improve the emergency response capacity.The traditional emergency plan is evaluated only from the target characteristics of the plan itself,while the uncertainties in the emergency disposal process are less considered.Compared with traditional emergency plan,the emergency plan has a stronger pertinence and operability.In addition,the actual situation of the current emergency should be considered in order to making a more scientific and effective assessment.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to improve the emergency response capability by the comprehensively evaluating emergency plans with uncertain factors.Based on this,this paper carried on a thorough research for the evaluation of emergency plans.The main content and innovation are as follows:Firstly,building the evaluation index system and determining the index weight.This paper puts forward a standardized description of the emergency plan based on the emergency activities.Combining with the target characteristics of the emergency plan and considering the actual situation of the current emergency,the contingency and rationality emergency plan evaluation index system is put forward.Considering that it is difficult for the decision maker to describe the relative importance of the evaluation index by using a precise numerical value,we used the triangular fuzzy number to describe two comparative judgment matrix between the different evaluation indexes.The weight of the index is determined by FAHP method.Secondly,assessing the pros and cons of the emergency plan.Aiming at the principle of qualitative evaluation and combining with the relevant theory of fuzzy sets,this paper uses the extended VIKOR method to evaluate the emergency plans according to the principle of satisfying the satisfaction of maximizing the “group benefit” and minimizing the “individual regret” for selecting a better emergency plan from the alternatives.Thirdly,assessing the emergency plans' robustness considering uncertainties.This paper defined the robustness of the emergency plan by analyzing various uncertainties in the emergency treatment process as well as considering the risk of emergency treatment tasks which cannot be completed on time.The robustness evaluation model is constructed through the analysis of the influence of the delay of emergency activities on the stability of the whole emergency plan.The robustness evaluation method of emergency plan based on the critical path of the planned network is proposed.Finally,a maritime emergency search and rescue plan is taken as an example to making application research.The experimental results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.