Research On Urban Emergency Response Capability Based On Scenario Rehearsal Of Major Emergencies

The stable and safe operation of cities is of great significance to the development of cities,but with the increase in the frequency of major emergencies,the operation and development of cities are under major threat.In order to cope with the risks brought about by major emergencies,the establishment of a sound urban emergency management mechanism and the improvement of the response strategy of the emergency mechanism are proposed,and research on urban emergency response capability is carried out.Through scenario analysis of major emergencies,this paper explores urban emergency response capabilities in terms of both emergency decisionmaking and emergency team execution,and accomplishes the following:(1)Based on the perspective of system theory,we analyzed the components of major emergencies from the definition and characteristics of major emergencies,and analyzed the interrelationships among the components to derive the evolution mechanism of major emergencies,introduced the domino model and the meta-automata model based on the theory of fragility of complex systems to analyze the propagation mode of major emergencies,and made an analysis of the We define the emergency process scenarios of major emergencies,and expand the scenarios of major emergencies from two scales: time and space,and construct a temporal scenario tree and a spatial scenario tree to analyze the scenario evolution of major emergencies.(2)The evolution process of major emergencies is divided into four stages: initial,development,climax,and receding,and the scenario components are combined with the SOM model to build the SOM scenario evolution model according to the evolution mechanism and propagation mechanism of major emergencies,combined with the scenario coupling model to simulate the scenario evolution of major emergencies,and analyze all possible scenarios to extract the evolving key scenario nodes and all the evolutionary paths that can reach this node.The GERT network model is introduced to quantify the initial data combined with the cloud model to predict the occurrence time and probability of key nodes,so as to provide reference for emergency decision and improve the emergency response capability of the city,and the feasibility of the scenario evolution model and the GERT prediction model is verified by taking the Tianjin port fire and explosion accident as an example,and the prediction results can provide reference for emergency decision.(3)In order to evaluate the execution capability of urban emergency teams for emergency decisions,the emergency management process is divided into four stages:prevention,preparation,response,and recovery,and the evaluation system of urban emergency capability is constructed by combining the characteristics of cities,constructing the ANP-TOPSIS evaluation model,introducing the gray correlation theory to improve the TOPSIS model,and using binary fuzzy numbers to quantify the qualitative indicators Finally,examples are introduced to evaluate the urban emergency response capability,and the shortcomings are analyzed according to the evaluation results,and improvement measures are proposed to provide reference for urban emergency response capability improvement.