| There are scientific causality and coincidence in terms of time and space betvween winter heating and air pollution.In order to improve the air pollution situation in China,and particularly reduce the haze during the heating season in the north,the State Council proposed the "Atmosphere Ten Articles" to solve air pollution problems in 2013.The government took the lead in managing the coal-fired small boilers and accelerating the implementation of coal to gas transformation in the "Atmospheric Ten Articles".Since the year of 2013,the "Atmosphere Ten Articles" has entered the final stage in 2017,but there is no relevant empirical literature to accurately measure the environmental benefits brought about by this policy.In order to answer this question,this article will focus on whether the "atmosphere ten" policy will help reduce the impact of heating in winter on air pollution.If so,the effect is obvious.This paper uses the unbalanced panel data of 258 cities from January 1,2013 to December 31,2015 to study whether the implementation of "Atmospheric Ten Articles" can help reduce the impact of heating on air pollution in the northern winter.The regression results showed that:(1)After controlling the interactions of regional factors,straw burning point data,other energy usage,various meteorological conditions,holiday factors,various fixed effects,and fixed effects,heating in winter has increased the northern region's AQI index significantly.(2)The implementation of“Atmospheric Ten Articles" has significantly reduced the air pollution in the northern region during the heating season,and this effect is only reflected in the winter season.This shows that "Atmospheric Ten Articles" works through the channel of heating.(3)In order to study the specific mechanism of the "Atmospheric Ten Articles",we set the "coal to gas" indicator.The results show that "coal to gas" has significantly improved the air quality in the north in the winter,but this effect is not caused by gas conversion.,and it is most likely caused by the reduction in coal burning.(4)Further,we use coal for power generation as the proxy variable for clean coal usage.The analysis results show that the increase in efficient clean coal does not lead to deterioration of air quality.Therefore,if centralized heating with advanced coal-fired boilers and reduction of bulk coal and coal-fired small boilers will also effectively improve the air quality in the northern heating season.It is more in line with the reality of China's resource endowment,coal-rich,oil-and gas-short.And it is conducive to national energy security.Based on these conclusions,this paper proposes the following recommendations for China's air pollution policy:First,to control the air pollution caused by coal burning during the heating period in winter,the treatment of non-standard coal-fired small boilers is likely to be the focus of work.It is necessary to continue to clean coal-fired small boilers,promote large-scale boilers and large-scale combined heat and power generation in urban-rural areas,and prevent residents from using bulk coal for heating.second,the heating industry should learn from the thermoelectric industry.The advanced pollution control experience will use scientific coal and clean coal as key points for future development in order to achieve clean coal heating.Third,it is necessary to carefully assess the environmental and economic benefits of natural gas heating,calculate the cost of coal-to-gas reform,and analyze the import price that coal-to-gas may cause.It will not only protect people's livelihood but also safeguard the country's economic security. |
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