A Study On The Potential Of China Steel Products Export To "The Belt And Road" Countries

As one of the pillar industries that promote China's economic development,the steel industry is particularly serious in the development of overcapacity in recent years.So it is of great significance to study the export potential of Chinese steel products to alleviate and even solve the problem of overcapacity of Chinese steel products.Combined this with the current strategy " The Belt and Road ",it undoubtedly provides a new path for the export of Chinese steel products,which brings new opportunities for the development of China's steel industry.From the angle of infrastructure construction,this paper combines the strategy of" The Belt and Road " with the overcapacity in steel industry,and selects 26 countries which arc ranked above the average level of the National Infrastructure Development Index of " The Belt and Road ' countries in the 2017 as the analysis object.We finds the growth rate of China's exports of steel products to the " The Belt and Road " national significantly accelerated in recent years.Of the 11 major steel products exported to the 26 countries with potential for infrastructure development,the exports of products with relatively high value-added are more.And the export of Chinese steel products is mainly in Southeast Asian countries.Then we combined with the situation of national infrastructure construction to expand the traditional gravity model,Take the aspect of the level of economic development.trade openness,infrastructure improvement,infrastructure development environment.Whether to enter into free trade agreement with China and the geographical distance between the two countries into consideration,and selected some substitution variables to analysis the steel products exports of China in 2007-2016 to the above countries,finally we found that only the coefficient of geographical distance and whether the destination are land-locked two variables are negative,which means the export of Chinese steel products have inhibitory while the other variables have a catalytic effect.Furthermore,the potential of China's export of steel products to these countries was calculated according to the model results,and the comprehensive potential of China's steel products export was found to be greater.There are 13 potential countries,mainly in Southeast Asian countries and Central and Eastern Europe such as Indonesia,Vietnam,Singapore,India and others.There are 11 countries including Laos,Kuwait,Pakistan,Iran,Russia and other countries,of which the West Asian countries account for nearly half.The potential development countries are only two countries which is Turkey and Malaysia.This requires the state to further optimize the export structure of iron and steel products,strengthen the coordination with the " The Belt and Road " nationals' trade policy,and actively participate in the construction of its infrastructure projects,thus driving the export of steel products in China.At the same time,iron and steel enterprises should also optimize their own product structure,and further tap the needs of iron and steel products in those countries who trade with them,to promote a new round of trade growth in China's steel industry.