Evaluation And Research On Regional Low Carbon Of Shaanxi Province Based On IPCC-LEAP Model

In the process of rapid economic development,industrialization and urbanization of human society,a series of problems have been raised,in which climate change is one of the focuses of global attention,and it is also the object of study by scientists all over the world.In the current academic consensus,a large number of greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions are the main cause of climate warming.China has experienced rapid economic development in the past 30 years,followed by a large number of greenhouse gas emissions,so the issue of climate change is also the greatest challenge that China is currently facing.For the foreseeable future,China's greenhouse gas emissions and economic growth will continue for some time.To solve the problem of global warming,China has explicitly put forward the INDC(Intended Nationally Determined Contributions),that is,to reach the peak of greenhouse gas emissions by about 2030,which means that China's Low-carbon development path,the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction is already very urgent.Cities are the human life,production of the gathering place,according to research that 80% of the greenhouse gas produced in cities,urban areas is the key to lower carbon emission,so the urban area of Low-carbon development research and Lowcarbon transformation is currently the focus of Low-carbon research.Shaanxi Province as one of China's important energy and economic provinces,the first of the five Northwest provinces,the central and Western link hub,the starting point of "The Belt and Road" in the Silk Road Economic belt,with a large number of needs to study and seriously face the Low-carbon development problem,and for a long time the formation of Shaanxi Province of Economic.It is very important to develop a low-carbon level of the inner city of Shaanxi province.With the analysis of the IPCC greenhouse gas emission accounting method and LEAP mode study,this paper is based on the statistics published by Shaanxi Province.The present situation of carbon emission in the province and the future forecast are studied.The results show that: first,through the internationally recognized carbon emission calculation method IPCC,the total carbon emissions from 2000 to 2015 and the carbon emissions of various sectors were calculated,Shaanxi province's carbon emissions,whether total or partial carbon emissions,showed a marked upward trend,especially the total carbon emissions,from 223.6206 million tons in 2000 to 912.634 million tons in 2015,the increase is very clear,the annual increase in value is also higher than the domestic average level.Second,using SPSS software to analyze the above results,get the driving factors that affect the carbon emission in Shaanxi Province,and then forecast the peak year of the carbon emission in Shaanxi province,and set up the corresponding situation pattern.Third,using LEAP model to analyze different scenarios and draw results for 2025 peak year carbon emissions peak of 1608944800 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent,2030 peak year carbon emission peak of 2197523400 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent,2035 peak year carbon emissions peak of 2976165600 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.According to the low carbon target and national policy of Shaanxi Province,it is concluded that the 2025 peak year scenario pattern is more suitable for the Low-carbon development of Shaanxi Province.Fourth,in order to achieve the goal of Low-carbon development in Shaanxi Province,a series of related measures are needed to develop low-carbon level,including providing energy management level,promoting Low-carbon industrial development,improving Low-carbon agricultural station,improving waste treatment mode and optimizing urban development mode.