The Study Of Carbon Emission Peak Situation And Policy For Wuhan

As China's economy changes from a fast-paced development to a new normal pattern of stable growth,the development goals of China's society have also changed from expanding economic aggregates to improving economic quality.The people's growing needs for a better life should also improve the quality of life and share the economy.The process of bonuses to meet.In this process,due to its unique basicity,scarcity,and externalities,energy has received attention from all walks of life.Environmental issues such as greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming caused by energy use have also received increasing attention..Study the situation and countermeasures of energy saving and carbon reduction under the new historical node,control the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions,realize the requirements of carbon dioxide emission reduction on the premise of ensuring economic development,and use energy conservation and emission reduction as an opportunity to promote economic structure,industrial structure,and energy The structural transformation and upgrading is an important and important issue in the process of realizing the high quality and sustainable development of China's social economy.This paper reviews the low-carbon development process of Wuhan City in detail,and clarifies the time node and peak-to-peak target of carbon emission of 173 million tons in 2022 based on the “Wuhan City Carbon Emission Action Plan(2017-2022)” firstly;Then it conducted a detailed investigation and collation of Wuhan's economic situation,industrial structure,and energy situation during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period,and conducted benchmarking analysis with domestic advanced cities to analyze its strengths and weaknesses;and then adopted a time based on synergies.The sequence trend model predicts the economic data and industrial data before 2022 in Wuhan,so as to obtain basic data that will affect the carbon emissions in Wuhan.On this basis,using the LEAP model and scenario analysis method,the total energy consumption and total carbon emissions of Wuhan City in 2022 were estimated,and the carbon emission forecasting trends under different scenarios were obtained.Finally,on the basis of BEST Cities,this paper gives targeted policy recommendations for promoting low-carbon development in Wuhan.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period,the economic growth rate of the yearbook of Wuhan City was 10.9%,and the economic development was rapid.In 2015,the regional GDP of Wuhan City was 1,090.56 billion yuan,the industrial output value was 1,758.266 billion yuan,and the added value of the service industry was 556.421 billion yuan,both exceeding the planned goals of the "Twelfth Five-year Plan";the industrial added value was 408.119 billion yuan,the third The proportion of the industry is 51%,which has not reached the planning target of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”.Compared with the domestic advanced cities,the proportion of the tertiary industry in Wuhan is obviously low,and the industrial structure is far from the advanced level.There are still large adjustments and improving space.(2)In 2015,total energy consumption in Wuhan was 48.85 million tons of standard coal,accounting for 50.03% of coal;energy consumption per unit of GDP fell from 1.06 tons of standard coal per ten thousand yuan in 2010 to 0.694 tons of standard coal in 2015.Ten million yuan,an average annual decline of 6.41%,a significant decline;compared to other advanced cities,Wuhan City,high-carbon energy ratio is too heavy,energy consumption per unit of GDP is significantly higher,both have greater room for improvement and improvement;Wuhan City The elasticity coefficient of energy consumption is more reasonable.Except for a few years,the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption is far less than 1.As far as Wuhan's own situation is concerned,the efficiency of energy use is gradually increasing,and economic development has a “lightweight” trend,and the quality of economic development has steadily increased.(3)Compared with the basic scenario,in the meantime,comprehensive energy efficiency,industrial upgrading and industrial restructuring measures will be adopted.In Wuhan City,the total energy consumption in 2022 will be 77.9 million tons of standard coal;the total carbon emissions(without regard for the residents' living standards)will be 15810.Ten thousand tons,which is lower than the target value of 14.9 million tons.Under this scenario,the carbon emission growth rate gradually decreases,and the growth rate gradually declines,which can meet the planning requirements for the peak carbon emission in 2022.Comparing with the basic scenario,under the conditions of Scenario 1 and Scenario 4,neither the total emission nor the growth trend can meet the planning requirement of peaking around 2022.Therefore,the implementation of comprehensive measures for energy efficiency,industrial upgrading,and industrial restructuring at the same time is an effective way to promote the time and total amount of carbon emissions in Wuhan.(4)In order to achieve Wuhan's planned carbon emission peak in 2022,Wuhan should adopt comprehensive measures for comprehensive energy conservation and efficiency improvement,industrial upgrading and industrial restructuring,and cooperate with the carbon trading system,introduce more stringent local building regulations,and establish Minimum power efficiency or emission standards for power plants,and specific measures for setting targets or quotas for renewable energy and non-fossil energy.In order to further realize low-carbon urban development,a systematic solution including the evaluation system of urban low-carbon development status,urban low-carbon development trend forecasting system,urban low-carbon development project evaluation and selection system,and urban low-carbon development policy formulation system should be constructed.