Simulation Of Dynamic Change In Land Utilization Toksun County Based On CLUE-S Model

Based on CLUE-S model Because of the special geographical position and environmental characteristic of Toksun County in Xinjiang arid area, the studying of land use and cover change of this area has unique meanings, and it has important theory meanings for setting up the experience model of land use and the regional of cover change of arid area of country in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.The CLUE-S model is applied to Toksun County in this text to simulate the land use and cover change in the area. The main content and conclusion of this research are as follows:(1)It has explained and analyzed the function and purpose of the modeling of the land use change, the structure and development trend of the model, and has recommended several kinds of model of land use change, which are of great impact at present, analysed briefly the main weak point existing of these models.(2)It has analyzed the interrelation between the land use change and driving force , it is the foundation to set up the dynamic model of land use change, through analyzing many kinds of driving force of causing the land use change ,this text draws out the driving force of greater influences to carry on quantitative analysis.(3)Adopting the current situation picture of the land use Database of Toksun County in 2009,turn it into image form,each image represents the area 4hm2,merge pattern of the land use into:cultivated land,Garden land,forest land,the meadow,others,area of residential area,industrial and mining land,water area,unutilized area.Using the method analyzing, it has chosen 10 kinds of drive factors that has made important contribution to land use/cover change of this area, set up driving force file with the method Arcgis space analyses,convert the force file into ASCII file,analyzed the weight of each kind of driving force with logistic regression function of SPSS17.0, set up logistic equation. Adopting the grey model,which predict the amount of the land in 2010 to 2024 years,then input it in the model to simulate the land use/cover change in this area.Distilling the most obvious impacts of driving factors,which is the road,trench,residential area,grade and so on,simulate the Space structure and form of land use. The ROC inspection result shows that, fit degree of various kinds of land including: cultivated land is 0.973,Garden land is 0.991,forest land is 0.850,meadow is 0.765,others is 0.883,area of residential area is 0.993,industrial and mining land is 0.735,water area is 0.916,unutilized land is 0.767, the degree is greater than 0.73, degree is rather good,which can simulate the county of land use and cover change.