Study On The Impact Of Agricultural Drought On The Comprehensive Grain Production Capacity Of Hebei Province

Agriculture is the basic industry of the national economy,and food production is the basis.Agriculture and food issues have been attached great importance by the Party Central Committee.The report of the Nineteenth National Congress of the CPC in October 2017 pointed out that to ensure national food security,the Chinese people's job should be firmly in their hands.In the document No.1 of the Central Committee of the CPC on the strategy of Rural Revitalization in 2018,the basic objectives of steadily improving the comprehensive rural production capacity and further improving the rural supply system were put forward.Document No.1 of 2019 once again put forward the requirement of ensuring stable supply of agricultural products and stable grain production.But at the same time,the harm of drought disaster to agricultural production and life has become increasingly prominent.Drought is a non-input external factor,which will have a great negative impact on improving grain production and comprehensive production capacity.Hebei is a major grain-producing Province in China,but also a serious water shortage province.Frequent drought seriously threatens the improvement of comprehensive grain production capacity in Hebei Province.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the impact mechanism of drought on comprehensive grain production capacity,to explore the relationship between drought and the factors of comprehensive grain production capacity,and to put forward targeted countermeasures and suggestions to minimize the loss of grain production capacity caused by drought in Hebei Province,so as to realize rural revitalization and ensure the sustainable development of agricultural economy.On the basis of literature review,this paper defines the related concepts of drought and comprehensive grain production capacity,and analyses their characteristics and composition respectively.At the same time,it elaborates the relevant basic theories,including agricultural protection theory,sustainable development theory and public goods theory.Then,the direct and indirect impacts of drought on comprehensive grain production capacity are analyzed,and the direct and indirect impacts are tested by regression analysis and grey correlation analysis.Finally,the policy suggestions for reducing the hazards of drought disaster and improving the comprehensive grain production capacity in Hebei are put forward.Based on the results of theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions.(1)The frequency of drought in Hebei Province is relatively high,especially in1999-2003 and around 2006.However,due to the input of agricultural factors,the total and unit grain yields in Hebei Province have maintained a steady growth;(2)The direct andindirect effects of drought on the comprehensive grain production capacity have been analyzed.In the direct impact,drought will directly lead to the reduction of grain yield per unit area and total output.In the indirect impact,drought will lead to the increase of difficulty in grain planting technology,the spillover of agricultural labor force,the change of crop demand for agricultural machinery and fertilizer,and the feedback effect on agricultural economic policy and food price,which will have an indirect impact on the comprehensive grain production capacity;(3)In the empirical aspect,Based on the time series data of1998-2016,this paper uses regression analysis method to find that drought does have a negative impact on the comprehensive grain production capacity of Hebei Province.At the same time,through grey correlation analysis,it can be seen that the impact of various factors on the comprehensive grain production capacity from large to small is: financial support for agriculture,agricultural economic basis,agricultural mechanization,agricultural irrigation,agricultural irrigation.Agricultural labor,pesticides and fertilizers.