Shandong Province Drought Plan Study

Droughts are a recurring phenomena that have plagued civilization throughout history. They affect natural habitats, ecosystems, and many economic and social sectors. Droughts are the world's costliest natural disasters ,causing an average of $ 6- $ 8b billion in global damages annually and collectively affecting more people than any other form of natural disasters.Firstly, this dissertation assesses and discusses the agricultural drought index of Shan dong Province. Since agricultural drought index has been widely applicable to practice and is relatively independent to other indexes, there are many research results on this index. After thoroughly researching the previous results, based on the actual survey information on the water containing quantity for 17 districts of Shan dong Province during the period from 1971 to 2003, the author investigated and analysed the soil nature and agro type of major plantation in Shan dong Province. Based on the different soil nature and agro type of the plantation, the author divided the plantation of Shan dong Province by 3 categories and rose to divide the agricultural drought index of Shan dong Province by relative soil water-containing rate. The relative soil water-containing rate not only considers the water containing quantity of soil, but also, due to the introduction of soil water-containing constant definition, such as soil water-containing quantity and ultimate wilting point, considers the difference of agricultural drought situation caused by different soil nature and characters. This dissertation assesses the agricultural drought situation of Shan dong Province during 1971 to 2003 with this agricultural drought assessment index. Compared with the drought situation of the same period assessed with agricultural drought indexes divided by soil water-containing quantity, this dissertation achieved satisfactory result.Secondly, this dissertation probes into the building up of comprehensive drought assessment model under the common effect of influential factors including surface water, groundwater, edaphic wate and rainfall. Referring to the theory of relative fuzzy set and multistage and multi objective decision making system of fuzzy mathematics, the author built up the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for drought index. Based on information of the actual assessment on the surface water, groundwater, edaphic water and rainfall, the author furthermore concluded the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model applicable to the actual situation of Shan dong Province. This model applies to the prediction assessment on the provincial drought situation. In addition, it can also be applied to the drought assessment on various districts of the Province. However, when this model is applied to the assessment on various districts, different parameters in line with the actual situation of the district should be used to the model. After achieving the assessment model, the author verified the model with the actual assessment information of Shan dong Province and Zaozhuang City. The verification result is well consistent with thehistory records.Finally, as a part of the anti-drought plan of Shan dong Province, this dissertation brings forward regular anti-drought measures and scalar anti-drought measures applicable to Tai' an city based upon the analysis on the water supplying situation and the water consume of this region.