Study On The Risk Assessment Model Of Water Resources Shortage

Water resources shortage risk assessment is a multi-objective decision-making problem involving water resources,ecological environment and social economy.Most of the factors affecting water resources shortage have certain randomness,fuzziness and uncertainty,and each factor has a fuzzy relationship of mutual restriction and correlation,which makes the system analysis difficult.Taking Zhengzhou as an example,this paper evaluates and analyzes the risk of water shortage.The main research results are as follows:(1)In order to evaluate the risk of water shortage in Zhengzhou City comprehensively and accurately,an evaluation index system including water resources,social status and water management was constructed.(2)In this paper,a risk index weight calculation method based on entropy weight G1 method is proposed,which overcomes the disadvantages of single weighting method,not only corrects the subjective randomness of G1 method,but also effectively solves the problem of serious equalization of entropy weight method results,and further enhances the objectivity and reliability of weighting results.(3)Using the fuzzy matter-element model,TOPSIS method and grey target model to evaluate the risk of water shortage in Zhengzhou City,the results show that: the risk of water shortage presents three different development stages: the first stage(2008-2010)presents a decreasing trend as a whole;the second stage(2010-2014)presents an increasing trend;the third stage(2014-2017)enters a new decline Period.Using Spearman rank correlation coefficient method to test the consistency of the results of different models,the results show two significant correlations(rs>0.9,P<0.01),which shows that the evaluation results of each model in this paper have strong consistency and stability.(4)Through the obstacle factor diagnosis model to analyze the obstacle degree of risk index layer and criterion layer,it shows that the obstacle degree of water resource subsystem shows a rapid upward trend,while the obstacle degree of social state subsystem and water management subsystem shows a downward trend of varying degrees,which shows that since the implementation of the strictest water resource management system,the social state subsystem and water management subsystem The result is good.Since 2016,the water resource subsystem's obstacle value anti excess water management subsystem has occupied a leading position,which has become a key factor hindering the risk reduction of water resource shortage.(5)In this paper,a new classification method of risk assessment of water shortage is proposed.When the results of this evaluation model are reasonably classified,they can pass the test with statistical significance.Within the allowable range of error,the classification results are basically the same,which verifies the feasibility of RSR method in risk classification,and the test results of Spearman rank correlation coefficient method are mutual It is proved that the RSR method and the evaluation model used in this paper have complementary advantages,and also greatly expand the scope of application of this study model.