| Nowadays we are in a major breakthrough in the period of economic and social development.It is also a prominent period in which the contradiction between land resources,economic development,and ecological environment has intensified.Land are the limited,only and precious resources in human life.Under the long-term development of human society,its utilization methods and uses are constantly changing.Only by fully understanding the driving forces of the land-use type's spatial and temporal evolution in various aspects,as well as the deficiencies and challenges in land management,can we further improve our country's land-use contradictions and achieve coordinated and sustainable development in all aspects.Wuhan is the largest and fastest growing city in central China,land use changes are very frequent.At the same time,the conversion between land use types and resource allocation problems are also increasing.Therefore,taking Wuhan as a research area to explore the influence of government behavior and the driving forces during its land-use spatial and temporal evolution is of great significance to the current regional development under the rapid urbanization environment.This paper introduces the theory of Game Theory,and used Game Theory methods and models to analyze the government's behavioral forces and driving forces in the process of land-use space-time evolution in Wuhan from 1995 to 2015.For the analysis and research of government behavior,based on the bargaining model in the theoretical model of complete information dynamic game,the role of the central government and the municipal government in determining the cultivated land area is analyzed.And based on the incomplete information dynamic game theorymodel to establish the municipal government's supervision game model for land-use enterprises.For the study of driving factors,mainly use the idea of cooperative game model,use the Shapley value method to obtain the driving factor effect value,and established the relationship equation between the driving factor effect value and the land area.Combined with the grey prediction model,the changes of land use types and areas in Wuhan in 2020 and 2025 are obtained.The research results are as follows:(1)Divided the government actions in the process of space-time evolution of Wuhan from 1995 to 2015 into two categories: Central government and municipal government,municipal government and land-use enterprises.Constructed a complete information dynamic game bargaining model of central government and municipal government's behavior and role in determining cultivated land area.In addition,the land use area transfer data from 1995 to 2015 was substituted into the model to verify the feasibility of the model results.Established a supervision mechanism model between the municipal government and the land-using enterprises,and connected the model results with the actual social status analysis to find out: For the supervision of cultivated land protection,the government should increase the punishment for illegal occupation of other types of land and reduce the cost of government supervision of land-using enterprises.(2)Research on the driving factors of the spatial-temporal evolution of land use in Wuhan from 1995 to 2015.Based on the cooperative game model—Shapley value method,the driving factor effect value from 1995 to 2015 is obtained.And established a regression equation model between 1995-2010 driving factor effect value and the area of each category.The 2015 driver factor effect value was substituted into the regression equation model,and the accuracy of the predicted area of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water area,construction land and other land was 97.84%,99.96%,96.81%,98.91%,89.07%,and 94.37%,The overall prediction accuracy is higher than that of the CA-Markov model.Combined with the grey prediction model to predict the effect value of the driving factors in 2020 and 2025,the area of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water area,construction land and other land in Wuhan in 2020 are 4731.00 km2,775.86 km2,62.36 km2,1751.41 km2,1181.96 km2 and 66.83 km2;in 2025,the areas of various regions are 4642.45 km2,766.94 km2,59.90 km2,1758.18 km2,1285.42 km2,and 56.53 km2.In general,the change trend of various types of area in Wuhan is as follows: the area of cultivated land is still decreasing,but the trend of decrease is slowing down,the area of forest land and grassland has also decreased slightly,and the area of construction land has increased significantly.In this paper,by comprehensively exploring the influence and driving mechanism of government behavior in the process of spatial and temporal evolution of land use types in Wuhan,and puts forward effective suggestions for sustainable development of regional land resources.In order to provide relevant data support for the decision-making work of sustainable land development in China. |
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