| Under the background of the rapid development of social economy and the increasing scarcity of land resources,in-depth study on the temporal and spatial characteristics,development laws and driving factors of land use change,analysis of the single and interactive mechanism between driving factors and land use types can dig up the potential direction of regional land use,guide the allocation of regional resources,and improve the efficiency of resource use Rate.Based on the data of land use change in 2010,2014 and 2018,this paper studies the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use change,analyzes the process and development law of land use change,and reveals the natural and human driving factors affecting land use change in Changwu county.Through the study of the single and interactive driving mechanism between the impact factors and land use change,we can provide advice and suggestions for the scientific development of land use in Changwu county.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:1.Changwu county has the largest forest area,followed by arable land and garden land.In the two research periods of 2010-2014 and 2014-2018,the transfer rate of garden land was significantly higher than that of other land types,while the increase rate of construction land,such as urban and rural land,industrial and mining land,and transportation land,was the most significant.From the analysis of landscape pattern,it can be concluded that the shape of different land use types in Changwu County tends to be broken and complicated.2.Considering the actual situation of land use in Changwu County,the driving factors of land use change are analyzed.The driving factors of land use change in Changwu county are divided into natural driving factors and human driving factors.Among them,natural driving factors include DEM,slope,aspect,distance from road,distance from water source,distance from central town and precipitation.Human driving factors include GDP,industrial and agricultural output value,per capita income and total population.Based on the visualization and collinearity analysis of the driving factors,it can be seen that there is no collinearity problem in the driving factors selected in the two time periods in Changwu County,so we can continue to use it to analyze the impact of the spatial and temporal characteristics of land usechange in Changwu County in the next step.3.At the same time,we use GWR Model and OLS model to regression analysis of human factors and land use change.By comparing the adjusted parameters of the two models,we can see that the parameters of GWR regression model are smaller,and the driving factors have more full explanation of land type change.Therefore,GWR regression model is more applicable than OLS regression model.4.The logistic binomial regression method is used to construct the regression model between natural driving factors and land use change data of Changwu County in two time periods.From the regression coefficient and its significance analysis,it can be seen that the natural driving factors selected in this paper have obvious correlation with land use change,among which the distance,rainfall and slope direction from the central town affect the land use of Changwu county Use the three most significant drivers of change.The ROC curves of the two research periods are greater than 0.7,which shows that the natural driving factors selected in this paper can better explain the changes of land types,and the selection results are reasonable.5.Through the construction of interactive detector,this paper discusses the interaction between the spatial and temporal changes of cultivated land,garden land,forest land,urban village,industrial and mining land and the driving force.The results show that the driving force factors that affect the spatial and temporal changes of different land types are both enhancement relations,specifically divided into nonlinear enhancement and dual factor enhancement,and there is no independent or weakening relationship between the factors.And then provide suggestions for the scientific development of land use in Changwu county. |
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