Study On The Impact Of Drought On Households’ Livelihood Vulnerability

In recent years,in the context of global warming,extreme disasters such as drought have occurred frequently,which has brought serious negative impacts on human production and life.The Loess Plateau is located in arid and semi-arid regions,and the continuous impact of drought has led to a more fragile ecological environment.The apple industry has been seriously affected as a pillar industry in the region.The drought shock has put the apple industry under double pressure.First,the increase in production costs,such as the increase in irrigation,pesticides and other input requirements;second,the reduction of apple income,such as measures are not taken in time or in place when drought occurs that caused a decline in apple production or quality,and a decline in sales revenue.The increase in cost and the reduction of income from the two sides of profit generation have led to a reduction in the economic benefits of fruit farmers,which has increased the farmers’ livelihoods vulnerability,which has seriously reduced the enthusiasm of farmers for agricultural activities and hindered the steady development of the entire industry and was not conducive to regional economic growth.In the face of the complexities of climate change,in order to promote and strengthen effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and research,a comprehensive framework that considers important mediating and moderating parameters and processes related to climate change adaptation has been noted.Therefore,in order to reduce the farmers’ livelihoods vulnerability and improve the farmers’ adaptive capacity,it is necessary to consider the mediating and moderating variables in the process of drought affecting the livelihood of farmers,which is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of the entire apple industry.Scholars have begun to analyze the effects of drought from different angles or using different methods.For example,some scholars consider the impact of drought on the ecological environment or capital variables.Another group of scholars have considered the impact of cross-scale variables on the vulnerability of livelihoods,and conduct qualitative research,but few scholars have conducted empirical analysis of the impact of cross-scale variables on livelihood vulnerability.Firstly,the paper used empirical analysis to explore the role of cross-scale variables in the impact of drought on livelihood vulnerability.Based on the survey data of 218 households in the Loess Plateau,the mediating and moderating effects of cross-scale variables in the impact of drought on livelihood vulnerability were investigated by the linear regression and hierarchical regression analysis.The results showed that drought had a significant impact on the livelihood vulnerability of rural households.In the process of drought impacting on livelihood vulnerability,the “age of household head,perceived maximum temperature,rainfall changes,drought degree changes,and post-disaster information channels” at the scale of persons and the " wholesale markets’ distance and village fairs’ distance" at the scale of households played a moderating role;the " three generations of immediate family members’ number of households and production machinery index" at the scale of the households played a mediating role;and the " engineering measures" had neither played a moderating role nor a mediating role at the scale of village.Secondly,through the social ecosystem framework,the adverse effects are negatively related to adaptive capacity.Resilience and restoration are positively related to adaptive capacity;adverse effects play the most important role in adaptability.When farmers face large adverse impacts,they strive to use their own livelihood resources to continuously improve their adaptive capacity..This paper used mediating and moderating effects to reflect the interaction of cross-scale variables,provided scientific methods in the empirical research of cross-scale effects,and made up for the gaps in existing research.According to the determinants of adaptive capacity,the adaptation measures of “before the disaster-in the disaster-after the disaster” were put forward,which provided a scientific and effective basis for formulating policies to reduce the farmers’ livelihoods vulnerability...