Research On Comprehensive Assessment Of Drought Bearing Risk Vulnerability In Henan Province

Frequent drought always happens and lasts long in our country, it severely restricted normal running of the society, affecting economic industry as well as agriculture a lot. For this reason, it is of great important and far-reaching significance to do comprehensive research on drought bearing risks vulnerability. Through these works, measures to protect against drought would be designed; drought fighting ability and control level would be raised, the inequality of water supply and demand would be shorten to a to a great extent.Assessment of drought bearing risks vulnerability consists of two parts:1) to evaluate the damage degree of hazard-formative factors; 2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the region. The damage degree is represented by grades of drought in this thesis. Therefore, drought comprehensive evaluation of researched area should be done firstly, and then frequency can be given. Based on the theory of set pair analysis, this paper put forward a set of drought evaluation index system of Henan and established a evaluation model in consideration of meteorological drought,agricultural drought,hydrological drought and social economic drought. Results analysis shows that the appraisal results with this model are quite close to the practical.Statistical frequency of evaluation results by the model this thesis established is analyzed, and then it is applied to the comprehensive research on risk vulnerability of Henan. According to the characteristic of each area in Henan, this thesis established the regionalized index system to evaluate the drought bearing risks vulnerability. By analyzing statistic data, the regional evaluation standard is determined, and a regional evaluation model is built to assess the risk vulnerabilities in different areas in Henan. The evaluate results indicate that, the east and south area of Henan is mild fragile, the southwest and the middle areas of Henan is moderate fragile, the west area of Henan is severe fragile, and the north area is extremely fragile. This result is accord with the actual situation.According to different situations, if both of the drought bearing risks vulnerability and the drought-resistant target are known in advance, this thesis can provide reference for relevant departments to formulate project measure and non-engineering measures that suit local circumstances to protect against drought.