Application Of Correlation Number In Drought Vulnerability Diagnosis

Drought disasters(drought disasters)have caused huge losses to human society,economic development,and the ecological environment for a long time.In recent years,with the continuous development of social economy and changes in the climate environment,the frequency of droughts has also been increasing.The risk of drought has become an important constraint affecting economic and social development,food security and ecological security.Drought vulnerability is the main part of the drought risk system,and it is the key link in the conversion of drought risk to drought loss risk.Timely and effective diagnosis of the main influencing factors of drought vulnerability can provide important decision-making basis for drought risk prevention and control.In order to effectively manage the risk of drought,this paper focuses on the uncertainty in the quantitative analysis of drought vulnerability diagnosis,and uses the connection number method in the set pair analysis to carry out the quantitative analysis of drought vulnerability diagnosis,and proposes to combine the connection number with dialectical factors,The combined approach of curative effect curves develops the application research of drought vulnerability diagnosis,constructs the dialectical factor drought vulnerability diagnosis model based on connection number,and the drought vulnerability curative effect curve diagnosis model based on connection number,and forms the connection number method for drought vulnerability diagnosis.And achieved the following main results:(1)In order to diagnose and identify regional drought vulnerability indicators,a combination of connection numbers and dialectical factors was proposed to establish a drought vulnerability diagnosis model,which was applied to Shandong Province and compared with existing research results.The results showed that the main dialectical factors of drought vulnerability in Shandong Province from 1999 to 2005 were forest coverage,urban water coordination capacity,and sewage discharge rate.The dialectical values were 0.583,0.226,and 0.222,all of which were greater than 0.2.Among them,forest coverage is the first dialectical factor,which has the greatest impact on drought vulnerability in Shandong Province.The drought vulnerability grades of the three dialectical factor indicators in Shandong Province have not improved significantly after2002.In 1999 and 2002,the drought vulnerability level in Shandong Province deteriorated to level 3(high vulnerability level).The drought vulnerability diagnosis method combining the connection number and the dialectical factor is simple and effective,and the results are consistent with the actual situation.It can provide an effective way to diagnose the regional drought vulnerability and identify the drought vulnerability indicators,and provide a theoretical reference for the quantitative assessment of the regional drought risk.Provide decision-making basis for formulating effective regional agricultural drought risk control measures.(2)In order to diagnose drought vulnerability indicators,improve the pertinence,rationality and effectiveness of agricultural drought vulnerability regulation,and reduce the possible losses caused by agricultural drought,the method of combining the connection number and the curative effect curve is proposed to construct a region based on the connection number.A diagnostic model of the curative effect curve of agricultural drought vulnerability,and an empirical analysis study was carried out in Bengbu City,Anhui Province.The results showed that the indicators obtained from the diagnosis of agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu from 2001 to 2010 were multiple cropping index,wetness index,agricultural water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP,and per capita GDP of farmers.These diagnosis results are related to the diagnosis of connection number and gray correlation coupling method.The results are consistent,indicating that the method of connection number and curative effect curve applied to the diagnosis of agricultural drought vulnerability is reasonable and effective,and it is more intuitive and reliable than traditional diagnosis methods.The drought vulnerability diagnosis method combining the connection number and the curative effect curve has certain applicability in agricultural drought.The method is simple and can provide scientific basis for the rational planning of regional agricultural drought vulnerability,and expand the research thinking of agricultural drought vulnerability diagnosis.(3)In order to diagnose drought vulnerability through the combination of connection number,syndrome differentiation factor and curative effect curve,the paper established the concept of drought vulnerability factor and its differentiation value and the ideal curative effect curve of regional agricultural drought vulnerability diagnosis.The above analysis and calculation of drought vulnerability diagnostic indicators and sample data based on connection numbers.This process is based on a deep understanding of the meaning of drought vulnerability.Therefore,applying the method of connection number to the diagnosis of drought vulnerability is to connect the mathematical method with the connotation of the drought risk system.