| Agriculture is a relatively fragile industry,crop growth depends heavily on the natural environment.In the new century,large-scale agricultural droughts have occurred in the southern and northern regions of China with the global warming and Increasing human activities,which has seriously threatened China's agricultural production.It is of great significance to study how to scientifically evaluate the agriculturual drought resistance and disaster reduction capability,take corresponding effective measures to prevent drought disaster and then scientifically manage agricultural drought risk for the improvment of China's agricultural modernization and ensuring national food security.In this study,we analyze the shortcomings of the current comprehensive evaluation of drought resistance in agriculture.Based on the comprehensive consideration of the “pressure-support” of agricultural drought,the theory of natural disaster system,natural disaster risk and comprehensive evaluation were combined to analyze the risk of agricultural drought.The factors were included in the comprehensive evaluation system for agricultural drought and disaster mitigation capabilities.(1)Through the analysis of the two influencing factors of agricultural drought “stress-support”,the agricultural drought risk model was constructed using the indicators selected from three aspects: risk,exposure and vulnerability;and the evaluation model for agricultural drought resistance was constructed from four aspects: engineering defense capability,production technology capability,resource security capacity and emergency management ability.Based on these two models,a comprehensive assessment model for agricultural drought resistance and disaster mitigation capacity was further constructed.(2)The correlation and coupling of various influencing factors were analyzed using the interpretative structural model,to obtain the influence path of various factors on the drought resistance of agriculture and clarify the action process and internal mechanism of the agricultural drought and disaster reduction system.(3)In view of the complexity of agricultural drought and drought resistance system,many influencing factors and mechanism of action are “unsure”,which brings challenges to traditional comprehensive evaluation empowerment.while synthesis evaluation using the improved unascertained measure model is helpful to quantitively evaluate the agricultural drought and mitigation activities in the unascertained state.(4)The comprehensive evaluation model was applyed to the evaluation of agricultural drought resistance and disaster mitigation capacity in 17 cities of Shandong Province.The results show that the agricultural drought resistance and disaster mitigation capacity of Shandong Province can be divided into four categories.The spatial feature of agricultural drought resistance and disaster mitigation capacity differs greatly in each city,and the results show certain distribution rules.While the main influence factors of the capability of agriculture to resist drought and reduce disasters are different in various cities.In comparison with the relevant researches and actual situations,the comprehensive evaluation model in this study is simple and applicable,and the results are intuitive and reliable that can reduce the subjective empowerment judgment of people to a certain extent.Application of the model in the agricultural drought and disaster mitigation capacity assessment is operable and practical,which can be targeted to improve a short-term of agricultural drought resistance capacity and provide a scientific basis for agricultural drought risk management. |
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