Reasearch Of Drought Disaster Risk Map For Anhui Province

Regional drought has been the typical extreme natural phenomenon under globalclimate change, and the problem puzzles every country, brings serious impact onproperties, work and life to global most parts, which becomes a major constraint tothe economic development. As the typical natural phenomenon under global climatechange, drought influent many countries. Recently, with the influences ofenvironment deterioration, the global climate changes, the rapid increase of thepopulation, the development of industry and the process of urbanization, water supplyfor agricultural irrigation decreases seriously, water shortage for irrigation is increasedfurther. Agricultural drought happens frequently, what makes the loss ascendobviously. The research of drought risk map could effectively improve droughtprevention and management, promote the water resources reasonable allocation, andrise regional capacity of drought resistance. With a view to crop, this paper putforward the method of regional drought risk map according calculating crop waterrequirement and water supply and crop water production function. The experimentalregion is the huaibei area of Anhui province, and the results of this study are asfollows:(1) During the growth period of wheat and corn, the depth of groundwater of16counties and cities of huaibei plant becomes lower from the north to the south,only few areas exist difference; according the analysis of many years measured data,the soil moisture content presents obviously different properties during the differentcrops and growth period, mostly becomes lower from the west to the east. While inparts of growth period, the soil moisture content of east margin is low.(2) According to every area specific conditions, select model of crop response towater in view of significance, coefficient index and the water sensitive coefficientchange regular of every method, and the Jensen model is choose because it fit aboveconditions.(3) According the experiment data from1996to2000, calculate the parameter ofthe model, namely the water sensitive coefficient, with traditional least square methodand GA (genetic algorithms). By comparing the results of the two methods, althoughthe results have similar tendency and fi actual situation, the difference exists. Thereare some theoretical defects of least square method, after analysis and comparison,result of the GA is selected.(4) Using wheat and corn to research the spatial distribution characteristic ofhuaibei plane drought losses, the result show: drought bring different loss in thedifferent growth period of every crop.