Sustainable Management Of Woody Biofuel Production Based On System Dynamics Model

As a kind of clean energy,woody biofuels play an important role in the development of green energy industry.The sustainable development of woody biofuel industry can alleviate the energy shortage in China to a certain extent,and is also conducive to the construction of new socialist countryside and the maintenance of ecological system balance.However,woody biofuel industry is also facing a series of problems of high consumption and high cost.It only pays attention to environmental benefits,but ignores the coordinated development of economy,society,resources and environment,which seriously hinders the long-term development of woody biofuel industry.Therefore,it is necessary to evaluate and predict the sustainable development status of woody biofuels industry in the current stage,which can provide a basis for formulating policies to promote the sustainable development of woody biofuels.This paper in detail studies the woody biodiesel industry development present situation at home and abroad and comprehensive on the basis of summarizing the related research progress of woody biomass,first of all,according to the theory of sustainable development,use inclusive wealth index index to the present stage of woody biomass production status on the thorough analysis,in order to measure the sustainable development of woody biodiesel industry.Secondly,the system management idea and system dynamics method were used to conduct dynamic analysis and research on the production system of woody biofuels.The system dynamics model of the production system of woody biofuels was established,and the sustainable development status of the woody biofuel industry in the future was predicted by the model.According to the inclusive wealth index measurement method,it can be calculated that the production of woody biofuels will reduce the inclusive wealth representing the total wealth of the society by 78 million yuan,which indicates that the current production of woody biofuels is not conducive to sustainable development.And woody biofuel production system according to the system dynamics model of the prediction results show that the next 30 years with the gradual expansion of biofuel production,woody biodiesel production will reduce inclusive wealth value gradually expand,and eventually reduce inclusive wealth of about 1.68 billion yuan,this suggests that from a long-term perspective,woody biodiesel production system as well as the unsustainable development.According to the evaluation results of the sustainable development of woody biofuels production system,the sensitivity analysis of the production system should be carried out by using the model.The analysis results will provide reference and guidance for the future development direction of woody biofuels.The results of sensitivity analysis showed that the yield and oil yield per unit area of raw materials had a positive impact on inclusive wealth change and were sensitive.Therefore,the policy implication of this paper is that,in order to promote the sustainable development of woody biofuel industry,the first measure is to increase investment in science and technology,cultivate improved seeds,increase yield per unit area and ensure the stability of high yield.The second measure is to optimize the production process of woody biofuels and improve the oil yield.Both measures aim to improve the efficiency of resource use in woody biofuel production systems.